Saturday, April 6, 2019

Deadly resistant fungus candida-auris

The New York Times for April 6, 2019, has a long story on a resistant fungus, C. auris, that has shown up worldwide in hospitals (and, in the United States, nursing homes).  Many infected hospitals have not informed the public of the danger involved in being present (for elective surgery, for example) at such a facility.

This is a long, nightmare-come-true sort of news story and is available at:

Friday, April 5, 2019

Video Games in China

What the Heck’s Going on in China’s Video-Game Market, the Largest in the World?
The Dragon in the Game Room has a situation 
By Adam H. Williams, Senior Associate at E911-LBS, LBSglobe.com, for WOLF STREET:

March 30, 2019 -- The opening of mainland China’s video game market to the world, combined with the rapid adoption of smartphones in China, has helped drive the extraordinary rise in global video game sales of the last decade. China’s gaming-industry revenue soared tenfold from 2008 through 2017. In 2018, China’s 620 million video game players spent about $38 billion on video games, or about 28% of the global market and half the global mobile market, which made China the largest video game market in the world, ahead of the US at $30 billion; and it helped make video games the largest form of entertainment in the world, with $138 billion in revenues, ahead of TV (see our chart of the global growth of video games by category).

In early 2018 something within this market changed, albeit very quietly at first. The government banned all new video game sales for the entire year! Additionally, they began to impose usage restrictions potentially impacting your social credit score.

Major Chinese tech companies have been seriously hurt by these blows. Tencent is ostensibly the largest gaming company in the world, though it may be better-known as the provider of WeChat. Due to the new game bans and usage restrictions, its stock is down about 25% from all-time highs in early 2018. The other major Chinese gaming company, NetEase, has experienced similar woes, with layoffs already announced. Its shares have dropped 35% since the end of 2017. One can only assume smaller operations have been feeling the pain outside of the public eye.

At the end of 2018, the ban lifted and approvals started coming out – but the loss of a year isn’t going to be recouped overnight, particularly since many titles may have lost their luster. Moreover, the approving regulator in February of 2019 asked for companies to stop submitting games for approval, as they had to deal with the backlog the ban generated. This means the ban is effectively back for the time being.

This slowdown/stall in China has pummeled projections for the gaming industry worldwide and shocked the markets. Gaming revenues are now expected to decline in 2019.

Global Impact


The Chinese gaming market is unique in several respects: its size, its culture, its barriers to entry, and the huge role that government plays.

Between 2000 and 2015, all foreign game consoles were banned for official sale, forcing gamers into a deep PC game culture. This culture revolved heavily around netcafes where paying for access was part of the way of life.  When the consoles (Xbox, PlayStation, Nintendo) were finally approved, they proved to be prohibitively expensive and gained little traction.

The rise of the smartphone, however, finally provided an inexpensive and common platform and China’s pent up gaming desire exploded. Most of the video-game growth globally in the last 10 years has been driven by mainland China coming online beyond normal demographic increases and general smartphone market.

Meanwhile, the government maintains tight controls over what is allowed in the market. Spending too much time gaming is seen as a social ill with real repercussions. This approval ban also affects foreign games and associated capital flows.

Quirks of the Chinese market


China requires foreign games to have local partners. Beyond this, all games must receive official approval, and numerous games are banned (not always for clear reasons), or publishers are required to alter the games.

There are also accusations for knockoffs of games. While rarely mentioned in major news, it is a significant part of trade talk discussion – this is a multi-billion dollar issue as players struggle to access the Chinese market while their products are being copied often wholesale as this USCC report notes.

Consumer spending patterns are also wildly different. Pay to Win in China is seen as a legitimate course to “victory,” whereas in nearly all other game cultures it is viewed with deep disdain. It is curious to note that, “micro transactions accounted for 88 percent of PC games spending in 2016,” according to a report by IHS Markit. Similar spending is likely on mobile. In other words, Chinese spending was not on games per se, but on in-game purchases, accounting for the majority of revenue in both the PC and mobile markets.

Chinese players also tend to switch games quickly. A game will become fashionable; urbanites will buy their way to powerful characters to gain face; and then they will quickly move onto the next fashionable game fad.

Many big gaming companies desperately want access to the Chinese market, but they aren’t getting it. Certainly, the government bans and delays haven’t helped, nor has what can be called a “cultural gaming crackdown.”

Why the Crackdown?


So, why the crackdown? Issues of Political Acceptability, Social Order, Good Behavior, Health (particularly eyesight), and Frivolousness are all cited for the approvals ban and obstacles. So the state is limiting game use. Tencent has already implemented in-game controls over playtime and amount of play available to minors, at the request of the Online Games Ethics Committee. The state has set limits on when you can play and how long you can play – children under 12 will be limited to just one hour of play per day, 13-18-year-olds get two hours – and overall there is a ban on play between 9pm and 8am. There is also talk of using facial recognition to help enforce the limits. There is talk that too much play will impact social credit scores.

Furthermore, Authorities have been cracking down on gambling, so if in-game transactions are deemed to be gambling and the practice banned, the sales losses could be even more extreme given the micro-transaction nature of the market.  Interestingly, Chinese laws on things like lootboxes are actually some of the most comprehensive in the world.

Chinese Acquisitions, Market Access, and Global Impact


With the internal market struggling, one item rarely talked about is that major Chinese companies have been quietly purchasing stakes in foreign studios. While not nearly as sensational as Chinese property acquisitions, this acquisition binge is very real yet difficult to understand due to the closed nature of many of these deals. Epic Games for example, the creator of Fortnite, is actually 40% owned by Tencent, making the pain of games like Fortnite not getting approval cut even deeper.

Tencent, in particular, has aggressive efforts to gain international sales. Recently, Epic Games launched its own game-store, and aggressively expanding, offering lower commissions, and (unpopular) exclusive titles.

Unfortunately, Epic has been accused of several privacy scandals, allegations including harvesting PC data and system modification without permission. And Fornite has had several security compromises giving serious concerns of privacy and data protection.  The store itself is not nearly as mature as its main rival Steam, lacking many features.

While obviously more customers are good for business, attempting to buy your way to success doesn’t seem to be going so well. If Chinese Tech companies are forced to liquidate foreign game investments due to capital shortfalls, there could be major ripple effects difficult to anticipate but likely impacting globally.

Of Note: only about 5% of Chinese game profits are by US companies, and only 25% international – 75% of the market is internal. This dovetails to the trade war concerns as outsiders struggle to get a piece of the market which remains mostly closed. This is a big deal, as many major players are going all in on mobile, with hopes to get a piece of the cake, but are not allowed in.

Also of note: No Chinese game has ever made it big outside of China. While some titles have gained limited popularity – usually in limited markets – there has never been a global success.

Looking Ahead


Will China’s love of spending money on mobile games last? Will micro-transactions continue to be popular as incomes become debt-constrained and central authorities limiting playtime? Will Pay-to-Win mechanics be fashionable in a time of tight wallets? With Chinese consumers cutting back their game spending (by choice or by force), plus the de facto ban on new games, the result is likely more financial impact. If the game market worsens, it could easily have global repercussions not just on game market, but even on the Chinese economy overall.

By Adam H. Williams, Senior Associate at E911-LBS, LBSglobe.com, for WOLF STREET

In the US video game industry, there are already layoffs and closures — the beginnings of a major shakeout. Read…  Video Game Industry Stalls, Stocks Plunge. What’s Going On?

Thursday, April 4, 2019

Social Justice Is Unjust

Unjust: Social Justice and the Unmaking of America
A book by Noah Rothman

Amazon Summary of this Book

There are just two problems with “social justice”: it’s not social and it’s not just. Rather, it is a toxic ideology that encourages division, anger, and vengeance. In this penetrating work, Commentary editor and MSNBC contributor Noah Rothman uncovers the real motives behind the social justice movement and explains why, despite its occasionally ludicrous public face, it is a threat to be taken seriously.

American political parties were once defined by their ideals. That idealism, however, is now imperiled by an obsession with the demographic categories of race, sex, ethnicity, and sexual orientation, which supposedly constitute a person’s “identity.” As interest groups defined by identity alone command the comprehensive allegiance of their members, ordinary politics gives way to “Identitarian” warfare, each group looking for payback and convinced that if it is to rise, another group must fall.

In a society governed by “social justice,” the most coveted status is victimhood, which people will go to absurd lengths to attain. But the real victims in such a regime are blind justice—the standard of impartiality that we once took for granted—and free speech. These hallmarks of American liberty, already gravely compromised in universities, corporations, and the media, are under attack in our legal and political systems.

Amazon Customer Review

By S.J.
5 Stars
Brilliant, Bracing Read

Noah is one of the best writers working today — mostly because he's one of the best thinkers. I've read him in Commentary and listened to him explain complex subjects on podcasts and on TV and I always come away having learned something new and thought about something I thought I knew a lot about in a totally different way.

I knew it would be an "important book," but I wasn't expecting to enjoy it as much as I did. His writing is incredibly energetic; some of his sentences are mini-essays. Everything he explores is all bad news, but you want to keep going because you get really invested and engaged in the telling of it. It was wonderful to get to "listen" to him at book length, and unsurprisingly I found his observations and recommendations compelling and persuasive.

All in all, brilliant book.

Agriculture's Computerized Future

Machine learning can reveal optimal growing conditions to maximize taste and other features.
Anne Trafton | MIT News Office

April 3, 2019 -- What goes into making plants taste good? For scientists in MIT’s Media Lab, it takes a combination of botany, machine-learning algorithms, and some good old-fashioned chemistry.

Using all of the above, researchers in the Media Lab’s Open Agriculture Initiative report that they have created basil plants that are likely more delicious than any you have ever tasted. No genetic modification is involved: The researchers used computer algorithms to determine the optimal growing conditions to maximize the concentration of flavorful molecules known as volatile compounds.

But that is just the beginning for the new field of “cyber agriculture,” says Caleb Harper, a principal research scientist in MIT’s Media Lab and director of the OpenAg group. His group is now working on enhancing the human disease-fighting properties of herbs, and they also hope to help growers adapt to changing climates by studying how crops grow under different conditions.

“Our goal is to design open-source technology at the intersection of data acquisition, sensing, and machine learning, and apply it to agricultural research in a way that hasn’t been done before,” Harper says. “We’re really interested in building networked tools that can take a plant’s experience, its phenotype, the set of stresses it encounters, and its genetics, and digitize that to allow us to understand the plant-environment interaction.”

In their study of basil plants, which appears in the April 3 issue of PLOS ONE, the researchers found, to their surprise, that exposing plants to light 24 hours a day generated the best flavor. Traditional agricultural techniques would never have yielded that insight, says John de la Parra, the research lead for the OpenAg group and an author of the study.

“You couldn’t have discovered this any other way. Unless you’re in Antarctica, there isn’t a 24-hour photoperiod to test in the real world,” he says. “You had to have artificial circumstances in order to discover that.”

Harper and Risto Miikkulainen, a professor of computer science at the University of Texas at Austin, are the senior authors of the paper. Arielle Johnson, a director’s fellow at the Media Lab, and Elliot Meyerson of Cognizant Technology Solutions are the lead authors, and Timothy Savas, a special projects assistant at the Open Agriculture Initiative, is also an author.

Maximizing flavor

Located in a warehouse at the MIT-Bates Laboratory in Middleton, Massachusetts, the OpenAg plants are grown in shipping containers that have been retrofitted so that environmental conditions, including light, temperature, and humidity, can be carefully controlled.

This kind of agriculture has many names — controlled environmental agriculture, vertical farming, urban farming — and is still a niche market, but is growing fast, Harper says. In Japan, one such “plant factory” produces hundreds of thousands of heads of lettuce every week. However, there have also been many failed efforts, and there is very little sharing of information between companies working to develop these types of facilities.

One goal of the MIT initiative is to overcome that kind of secrecy, by making all of the OpenAg hardware, software, and data freely available.

“There is a big problem right now in the agricultural space in terms of lack of publicly available data, lack of standards in data collection, and lack of data sharing,” Harper says. “So while machine learning and artificial intelligence and advanced algorithm design have moved so fast, the collection of well-tagged, meaningful agricultural data is way behind. Our tools being open-source, hopefully they will get spread faster and create the ability to do networked science together.”

In the PLOS ONE study, the MIT team set out to demonstrate the feasibility of their approach, which involves growing plants under different sets of conditions in hydroponic containers that they call “food computers.” This setup allowed them to vary the light duration and the duration of exposure to ultraviolet light. Once the plants were full-grown, the researchers evaluated the taste of the basil by measuring the concentration of volatile compounds found in the leaves, using traditional analytical chemistry techniques such as gas chromatography and mass spectrometry. These molecules include valuable nutrients and antioxidants, so enhancing flavor can also offer health benefits.

All of the information from the plant experiments was then fed into machine-learning algorithms that the MIT and Cognizant (formerly Sentient Technologies) teams developed. The algorithms evaluated millions of possible combinations of light and UV duration, and generated sets of conditions that would maximize flavor, including the 24-hour daylight regime.

Moving beyond flavor, the researchers are now working on developing basil plants with higher levels of compounds that could help to combat diseases such as diabetes. Basil and other plants are known to contain compounds that help control blood sugar, and in previous work, de la Parra has shown that these compounds can be boosted by varying environmental conditions.

The researchers are now studying the effects of tuning other environmental variables such as temperature, humidity, and the color of light, as well as the effects of adding plant hormones or nutrients. In one study, they are exposing plants to chitosan, a polymer found in insect shells, which makes the plant produce different chemical compounds to ward off the insect attack.

They are also interested in using their approach to increase yields of medicinal plants such as the Madagascar periwinkle, which is the only source of the anticancer compounds vincristine and vinblastine.

“You can see this paper as the opening shot for many different things that can be applied, and it’s an exhibition of the power of the tools that we’ve built so far,” de la Parra says. “This was the archetype for what we can now do on a bigger scale.”

This approach offers an alternative to genetic modification of crops, a technique that not everyone is comfortable with, says Albert-László Barabási, a professor of network science at Northeastern University.

“This paper uses modern ideas in digital agriculture to systematically alter the chemical composition of the plants we eat by changing the environmental conditions in which the plants are grown. It shows that we can use machine learning and well-controlled conditions to find the sweet spots, that is, the conditions under which the plan maximizes taste and yield,” says Barabási, who was not involved in the study.

Climate adaptation

Another important application for cyber agriculture, the researchers say, is adaptation to climate change. While it usually takes years or decades to study how different conditions will affect crops, in a controlled agricultural environment, many experiments can be done in a short period of time.

“When you grow things in a field, you have to rely on the weather and other factors to cooperate, and you have to wait for the next growing season,” de la Parra says. “With systems like ours, we can vastly increase the amount of knowledge that can be gained much more quickly.”

The OpenAg team is currently performing one such study on hazelnut trees for candy manufacturer Ferrero, which consumes about 25 percent of the world’s hazelnuts.

As part of their educational mission, the researchers have also developed small “personal food computers” — boxes that can be used to grow plants under controlled conditions and send data back to the MIT team. These are now used by many high school and middle school students in the United States, among a network of diverse users spread across 65 countries, who can share their ideas and results via an online forum.

“For us, each box is a point of data which we’re very interested in getting, but it’s also a platform of experimentation for teaching environmental science, coding, chemistry, and math in a new way,” Harper says.

                       http://news.mit.edu/2019/algorithm-growing-agriculture-0403

Wednesday, April 3, 2019

IBM's Watson and slow A.I. Progress

IBM has spent more than five years working on its special artificial intelligence system, Watson.  It was thought that medical records and diagnosis would be performed with great accuracy through this new system.  A lot of great performance was promised but has not been developed.  A long article in the electrical engineers’ journal explains why.  See  https://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/diagnostics/how-ibm-watson-overpromised-and-underdelivered-on-ai-health-care/

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

Seven Moral Universals

By Ross Pomeroy - RCP Staff

Anthropologists at the Institute of Cognitive and Evolutionary Anthropology at University of Oxford have identified seven universal moral codes.

Conducting an extensive search through ethnographic data spanning 300 years from unique 603 sources on 60 different societies spread all across the world, Senior Researcher Oliver Scott Curry, Postdoctoral Researcher Daniel Austin Mullins, and Chair of Social Anthropology Harvey Whitehouse found that

  • helping kin
  • helping your group
  • reciprocating
  • being brave
  • deferring to superiors
  • dividing disputed resources
  • respecting prior possession
were viewed as universally positive traits.

Their findings are published in Current Anthropology.

In the ethnographic literature on the studied societies, these qualities and actions were mentioned positively 961 times and negatively only once. The single exception was seen amongst the Chuuk people who predominantly dwell in the Federated States of Micronesia, a chain of islands in the Western Pacific. Some in Chuuk society believe that "to steal openly from others is admirable in that it shows a person’s dominance and demonstrates that he is not intimidated by the aggressive powers of others."

The researchers specifically searched for these traits in the literature as they are facets of a theory which states that cooperation forms the basis for human morality.

"The theory of “morality-as-cooperation” argues that morality consists of a collection of biological and cultural solutions to the problems of cooperation recurrent in human social life," they wrote.

The foundation of morality has been debated and discussed for thousands of years. Philosophers, theologians, scientists, and religious figures have jumped into the fray with all sorts of ideas. Most of these hypotheses come with little empirical backing, so it's refreshing to see Curry, Mullins, and Whitehouse support their favored theory with data.

The data is far from perfect, however. On a world with 7.5 billion inhabitants, sixty cultures is a comparatively paltry sampling. Moreover, the ethnographic search was handicapped in that it didn't measure the strength of the seven moral values in societies. It also left out other potentially even more fundamental moral codes.

"Hitting someone is a foundational moral violation," Yale University Psychologist Paul Bloom wrote in a comment to the paper. "Indeed, these sorts of physical infractions are found to be morally wrong by the youngest babies we can test. This might be at the core of morality, as opposed to more subtle and later developing capacities such as valuing bravery or respecting the possessions of others."

As evidenced in the study, cooperative behaviors do seem to be universally moral, but whether or not cooperation is the basis for all morality cannot be answered with this paper.

Source: Oliver Scott Curry, Daniel Austin Mullins, and Harvey Whitehouse, "Is It Good to Cooperate?: Testing the Theory of Morality-as-Cooperation in 60 Societies," Current Anthropology 60, no. 1 (February 2019): 47-69. https://doi.org/10.1086/701478

https://www.realclearscience.com/quick_and_clear_science/2019/03/21/study_identifies_seven_universal_moral_codes.html

Monday, April 1, 2019

Socialism's Eternal Excuse

Socialism’s Endless Refrain: This Time, Things Will Be Different
written by Kristian Niemietz

Quillette, March 30, 2019 -- Germany’s socialist left is currently embroiled in a row over the correct stance on Venezuela. The conflict came to the fore at the February conference of Die Linke, the country’s main socialist party, when a group of Nicolás Maduro fans stormed the stage, chanting slogans and waving banners with pro-Venezuela messages.
Nicolás Maduro is the successor to Hugo Chávez, and has served as Venezuelan President since 2013. The legitimacy of his presidency has been in free fall in recent years, and many now call him a dictator. As Maduro’s popularity has waned, his tactics have become increasingly brutal. In 2018, a panel of legal experts convened by the Organization of American States recommended that the regime be referred to the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity.

Many members of the Die Linke party establishment, however, still side with Maduro, whom they see as a comrade under siege. Others, especially in the party’s youth organisation, take the opposite view—which is why the February conference was contentious. One young member describes the party’s in-house Chavistas as “die-hard reactionaries, who have an antiquated understanding of socialism.”
This has been widely portrayed in the German media as a struggle between reformists and fundamentalists, with the battle lines running loosely along generational lines. In this version of events, the older crop of socialists tend to have a more rigid, dogmatic understanding of socialism, while the newer generation is more open-minded in its approach.

This coincides with the portrayal, and the self-perception, of “millennial socialist” movements across the Western world. A lot has been written recently about the resurgence of socialism among young voters. Socialist candidates such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the United States, Jeremy Corbyn in the UK and Jean-Luc Mélenchon in France have seen huge surges in popularity. And while the candidates themselves span the age spectrum, they all find their most enthusiastic support among young people.
This socialist revival is, of course, neither a homogenous movement, nor a fully worked-out policy program. But if there is a common thread, it is the belief that emerging forms of socialism could be completely different from anything that has flown under that ideological banner in the past. For these new socialists, socialism doesn’t necessarily mean a society run by large, hierarchical government bureaucracies. Nor does it mean a command-and-control economy, directed by a distant, technocratic elite. It means experimenting with new forms of social ownership and democratic decision-making, devolving power to the grassroots, and empowering ordinary working people.

Since earlier socialist projects didn’t develop in this way, modern socialists tend not to identify with them; and sometimes even reject the idea that these precursors were even “socialist” at all. If one had to summarise the public-facing posture of modern socialism in one sentence, it would be: “This time will be different.”
The problem is that it won’t be. Notwithstanding the often sympathetic media portrayal lavished on modern socialists, there’s little reason to believe that the governments they produce, if elected, will differ in basic structure from those of their ideological forebears.

Even in the above-cited example of Die Linke member attitudes toward Venezuela, I see little evidence that young socialists are taking any sort of radically new approach. They are simply too young to have any kind of strong, active memory of a time when Venezuela represented the great white hope of socialism. Chavez died in 2013, before many of today’s 20-somethings became politically active. They have not made the same emotional investments in personalities, parties, movements and whole nations as their older fellow travellers. As a witty headline writer put it in 2012, “To college freshmen, Kurt Cobain has always been dead.” Similarly, to today’s college freshmen, Venezuela has always been in crisis.
As it happens, I remember the beginnings of Venezuela-mania in the mid-2000s quite well. I was not a socialist, but I spent a lot of time arguing with socialists—because, well, I was a student in Berlin, and there was no one else to argue with. There was just the left, the far left, and the very far left.

On the one hand, there were (typically older) socialists who still felt varying degrees of attachment to the former German Democratic Republic (the GDR, i.e., East Germany) and its “big brother,” the Soviet Union. They did not want to reanimate the GDR, and they condemned the Stasi and the Berlin Wall. But they could not completely let the dream go.
On the other hand, there were (typically younger) socialists, who felt no such attachment. They saw themselves as the vanguard of a different kind of socialism—less rigid, less dogmatic, less ideological. They saw GDR nostalgists as die-hard reactionaries. And when they looked around the world for a place where socialism was evolving in a way that was new, exciting, flexible and democratic, that place turned out to be Venezuela.

This was not entirely an act of political self-delusion. When Chávez outlined his vision for a “Socialism of the 21st Century” at the 2005 World Social Forum, he defined it explicitly in opposition the socialism of the USSR. Soviet socialism, in Chávez’s words, was a “perversion.” This time would be different.
And notwithstanding the chaos and cruelty that has unfolded in Venezuela, Chávez and Maduro really did try to build something new. There were genuine attempts to create alternative models of collective ownership and democratic participation in economic life. In particular, the government heavily promoted the formation of worker co-operatives and various forms of social enterprises. We now know that nothing much would come out of those efforts, but it wasn’t for lack of trying.

In the mid-2000s, things were looking up. Oil prices had more than quadrupled in real terms since Chavez first came to power in 1998. And as a result, the Venezuelan economy was booming, flooding the government with petrodollars. Chávez could afford to spend lavishly on social programs and public-sector projects. Western socialists finally had their proof-of-concept. Here was a country whose success seemed to prove that socialism could be economically viable, democratic and (for a time) respectful of human rights. And so it’s not surprising that many on the left built up a strong emotional attachment to Venezuela. There was even a fad for a political ideology known as Chavismo—a mash-up of socialism, populism, Latin American internationalism and recycled Bolivarianism.
Back then, it was the Chavistas who would look down on nostalgic comrades who still retained an attachment to earlier, discredited socialist projects. Now, suddenly, they find themselves in that same unfashionable role.

This has happened many times before, and is part of a predictable cycle. As I show in my new book Socialism: The Failed Idea That Never Dies, socialist projects always go through honeymoon periods, during which they are enthusiastically endorsed by Western intellectuals. But since socialist policies generally lead to economic failure, and sometimes even political repression, those honeymoon periods typically don’t last for more than a decade. Then these foreign example fall out of fashion, and get retroactively reclassified as counterfeit socialism. The USSR, North Vietnam, Cuba and Maoist China all functioned as utopias du jour. In the 1970s, some Western intellectuals even pinned their hopes on more obscure areas of the world, such as Cambodia, Albania, Tanzania, Mozambique, Angola and Nicaragua.
One common, backward-looking delusion in all of these cases: When explaining away the failures of the past, it was assumed that the hierarchical, stratified character of failed socialist projects had been a result of some deliberate political choice. Which is to say: It was believed that previous socialist experiments had failed because the leaders of these movements caused them to be centralized and autocratic as a matter of design—as opposed to a democratic socialist system based on mass participation and a radical decentralisation of power.

But the truth is that mass participation and radical democratization always had been idealized by socialists, including by socialist leaders who led successful national movements. But these dreams never survived, because it simply isn’t feasible to run a large society and a complex economy in this kind of participatory way. Democratic socialism works perfectly fine in small, self-selecting and homogenous high-trust communities with relatively simple economies, the prime example being the Israeli Kibbutz. But that model is not scalable (and hasn’t even aged particularly well in Israel itself). There is a reason that, even at the height of the Kibbutz movement, Kibbutzim never grew beyond a certain size. There seems to be an upper limit of around 1,500 people, and even that is rare: Most Kibbutzim have fewer than 500 members.
Regardless of what socialists say they want to build, socialism can only mean a society run by large, hierarchical government bureaucracies. It can only mean a command-and-control economy directed by a distant, technocratic elite. The reason it always turns out that way isn’t because revolutions are “betrayed” by selfish or undisciplined actors, but because no other path is possible. Unfortunately, this is a lesson that every generation needs to learn for itself—which is why each cohort is sneered at by its younger counterparts.

At the Die Linke conference, it was a fight about Nicolás Maduro and the fate of Venezuela. A decade from now, the spectacle will be repeated—with different names and flags. When it comes to socialism, hope springs eternal, even as socialism’s victims inevitably fall into poverty.
Dr. Kristian Niemietz is Head of Political Economy at the Institute of Economic Affairs. Follow him on Twitter at @K_Niemietz.