Ever-Present Threat of Supervolcano Eruptions

Scientists have studied an ancient supervolcano in Indonesia and found such volcanoes remain active and hazardous for thousands of years after a super-eruption, prompting the need for a rethink of how these potentially catastrophic events are predicted.

From:  Curtin University

September 3, 2021 -- Associate Professor Martin Danišík, lead Australian author from the John de Laeter Centre based at Curtin University, said supervolcanoes often erupted several times with intervals of tens of thousands of years between the big eruptions but it was not known what happened during the dormant periods.

"Gaining an understanding of those lengthy dormant periods will determine what we look for in young active supervolcanoes to help us predict future eruptions," Associate Professor Danišík said.

"Super-eruptions are among the most catastrophic events in Earth's history, venting tremendous amounts of magma almost instantaneously. They can impact global climate to the point of tipping the Earth into a 'volcanic winter', which is an abnormally cold period that may result in widespread famine and population disruption.

"Learning how supervolcanoes work is important for understanding the future threat of an inevitable super-eruption, which happen about once every 17,000 years."

Associate Professor Danišík said the team investigated the fate of magma left behind after the Toba super-eruption 75,000 years ago, using the minerals feldspar and zircon, which contain independent records of time based on the accumulation of gasses argon and helium as time capsules in the volcanic rocks.

"Using these geochronological data, statistical inference and thermal modelling, we showed that magma continued to ooze out within the caldera, or deep depression created by the eruption of magma, for 5000 to 13,000 years after the super-eruption, and then the carapace of solidified left-over magma was pushed upward like a giant turtle shell," Associate Professor Danišík said.

"The findings challenged existing knowledge and studying of eruptions, which normally involves looking for liquid magma under a volcano to assess future hazard. We must now consider that eruptions can occur even if no liquid magma is found underneath a volcano -- the concept of what is 'eruptible' needs to be re-evaluated.

"While a super-eruption can be regionally and globally impactful and recovery may take decades or even centuries, our results show the hazard is not over with the super-eruption and the threat of further hazards exists for many thousands of years after.

"Learning when and how eruptible magma accumulates, and in what state the magma is in before and after such eruptions, is critical for understanding supervolcanoes."

The study was led by researchers from Oregon State University, and co-authored by researchers from Heidelberg University, the Geological Agency of Indonesia, and by Dr Jack Gillespie from Curtin's School of Earth and Planetary Sciences and The Institute for Geoscience Research (TIGeR), Curtin's flagship earth sciences research institute.

      https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/09/210903085900.htm

Much Bigger and More Powerful Wind Energy

This wildly reinvented wind turbine generates five times more energy than its competitors -- It could power up to 100,000 households.

From:  Fast Company

September 3, 2021 -- Renewable energy could power the world within the next 30 years, and wind power is one of the cheapest, most efficient ways to get there.  Except 80% of the world’s offshore wind blows in deep waters, where it’s difficult to build wind farms. A new design for a radically different kind of wind turbine could begin to change that.

Norwegian company Wind Catching Systems is developing a floating, multi-turbine technology for wind farms that could generate five times the annual energy of the world’s largest, single wind turbine. This increased efficiency is due to an innovative design that reinvents the way wind farms look and perform.

Unlike traditional wind turbines, which consist of one pole and three gargantuan blades, the so-called Wind Catcher is articulated in a square grid with over 100 small blades. At 1,000 feet high, the system is over three times as tall as an average wind turbine, and it stands on a floating platform that’s anchored to the ocean floor. The company is planning to build a prototype next year. If it succeeds, the Wind Catcher could revolutionize the way we harness wind power.

“Traditional wind farms are based on the old Dutch windmills,” says Ole Heggheim, CEO of Wind Catching Systems. These wind farms work well on land, but “why is it that when you have something that works on land, you should do the same thing on water?”

Offshore wind farms have been in vogue; 162 of them are already up and running, with 26 more to come, mostly in China and the U.K. The problem is that each turbine has to be driven into the seabed, so it can’t be installed in waters deeper than 200 feet. As a result, wind farms can’t be built farther than about 20 miles away from shore, which limits their performance potential since the winds are stronger farther out into the ocean.

This is where floating wind farms come into play. The world’s first floating wind farm, Hywind, opened in 2017, almost 25 miles off the coast of Aberdeen in Scotland. The wind farm counts six floating wind turbines that are slotted in a buoyant cylinder  filled with heavy ballast to make it float vertically. Because they’re only tethered to the seabed with thick mooring lines, they can operate in waters more than 3,000 feet deep.

Hywind is powering around 36,000 British homes, and it has already broken U.K. records for energy output. Wind Catching Systems launched the same year Hywind opened. It claims that one unit could power up between 80,000 and 100,000 European households. In ideal conditions, where the wind is at its strongest, one wind catcher unit could produce up to 400 gigawatt-hours of energy. By comparison, the largest, most powerful wind turbine on the market right now produces up to 80 gigawatt-hours.

There are several reasons for this substantial difference. First, the Wind Catcher is taller—approaching the height of the Eiffel Tower—which exposes the rotor blades to higher wind speeds. Second, smaller blades perform better. Heggheim explains that traditional turbines are 120 feet long and usually max out at a certain wind speed. By comparison, the Wind Catcher’s blades are 50 feet long and can perform more rotations per minute, therefore generating more energy.

And because the blades are smaller, the whole system is easier to manufacture, build, and maintain. Heggheim says it has a design lifespan of 50 years, which is twice as much as traditional wind turbines, and when some parts need to be replaced (or during annual inspections), an integrated elevator system will offer easy maintenance. “If you have one single turbine and you need to change the blade, you have to stop the whole operation,” says Ronny Karlsen, the company’s CFO. “We have 126 individual turbines, so if we need to change the blade, we can stop one turbine.”

When the system reaches the end of its life, much of it can be recycled. After the first significant wave of wind power in the 1990s, many traditional wind turbines have reached their design lifespan; blades the size of a Boeing 747 wing are piling up in landfills. Not only are the Wind Catcher blades smaller, but they’re also made of aluminum, which, unlike the fiberglass used for larger turbines, is entirely recyclable. “You melt it down and produce new ones,” says Heggheim.

A prototype will likely be built in the North Sea (in Norway or the U.K.). After that, the company is looking at California and Japan. “Those have good wind resources near the shore,” says Karlsen, “and the governments are supportive and already starting to award acreage for developments.” And for those wondering about the dangers this might pose to birds, Heggheim says the structure will be kitted out with bird radars that send out short pulses of signal to help prevent collisions with migrating birds. “These units will be so far offshore,” he says, “so birdlife along the coast should not be endangered.”

[Link with drawings of the prototype:] https://www.fastcompany.com/90672135/this-wildly-reinvented-wind-turbine-generates-five-times-more-energy-than-its-competitors

Amiable Willard Scott Dies at age 87

He played many roles for decades on radio and television

Willard Herman Scott Jr. (March 7, 1934 – September 4, 2021) was an American weather presenter, radio and TV personality, actor, narrator, clown, comedian, and author, with a career spanning 65 years, he best known for his television work on the Today show as weather reporter and also presented a tribute greetings segment for people celebrating there 100th or above birthdays, He was the creator and original portrayer of Ronald McDonald.

Early Years

Scott was born in Alexandria, Virginia, to parents Willard Herman Scott and Thelma Phillips on March 7, 1934, and attended George Washington High School.  He showed an interest in broadcasting as a 16-year-old, working in 1950 as an NBC page at WRC (AM), NBC's owned-and-operated radio station in Washington, D.C.  Scott then attended American University, where he worked alongside fellow student Ed Walker at WAMU-AM, the university's radio station (1951–1953). Scott became a member of Alpha Sigma Phi fraternity while at American University and graduated with a Bachelor of Arts 1degree in philosophy and religion.

Willard Scott’s Career

Joy Boys radio show

From 1955 to 1972, Scott teamed with Ed Walker as co-host of the nightly Joy Boys radio program on NBC-owned WRC radio (this was interrupted from 1956 to 1958 when Scott served on active duty with the U.S. Navy). Scott routinely sketched a list of characters and a few lead lines setting up a situation, which Walker would commit to memory or make notes on with his Braille typewriter (Walker was blind since birth). In a 1999 article recalling the Joy Boys at the height of their popularity in the mid-1960s, The Washington Post said they "dominated Washington, providing entertainment, companionship, and community to a city on the verge of powerful change".  The Joy Boys show played on WRC until 1972 when they moved to cross-town station WWDC for another two years. Scott wrote in his book, The Joy of Living, of their close professional and personal bond which continued until Walker's death in October 2015, saying that they are "closer than most brothers".

Washington, D.C., TV roles

Scott spent the 1960s balancing his radio career with jobs as the host of children's television programs. He appeared on WRC Radio's sister station, WRC-TV, playing characters such as Commander Retro and Bozo the Clown.  In 1970, Scott began appearing on WRC-TV as a weekday weatherman.

Ronald McDonald character

Another TV role he performed regularly from 1963 to 1966 and occasionally as late as 1971 was Ronald McDonald for the McDonald's franchise in Washington, D.C.  Scott wrote in his book The Joy of Living that he originally created the Ronald McDonald character at the local franchise's request, which had also sponsored the Bozo the Clown show on which he portrayed Bozo.

In his book Fast Food Nation, Eric Schlosser claims that McDonald's replaced Scott on account of his weight, supposedly concerned about McDonald's image.  Scott denied the claims and cited other commitments he had at the time.

NASA

Scott worked as the narrator for NASA's weekly program called "The Space Story", with his contributions spanning from the Apollo Program to the Space Shuttle.

The Today Show

Scott was tapped by NBC in 1980 to become its weatherman for The Today Show, replacing Bob Ryan, who replaced him at WRC-TV until 2010. After being inspired by a viewer request, Scott began his practice of wishing centenarians a happy birthday on-air in 1983.

During the 1980s, Scott routinely did weather reports on the road, interviewing locals at community festivals and landmarks. He also periodically performed on the program from Washington, D.C., which he still considered his home.

In 1989, The Today Show co-host Bryant Gumbel wrote an internal memo critical of the show's personalities, a memo that was later leaked to the media. In the memo, Gumbel said Scott "holds the show hostage to his assortment of whims, wishes, birthdays and bad taste…This guy is killing us and no one's even trying to rein him in."  This garnered enough of a backlash that the next time they appeared on camera together Scott kissed Gumbel on the cheek to show he'd forgiven him, and also later said he hoped the whole thing would go away.

In 1992, Scott, who was the first incarnation of Ronald McDonald, recorded a commercial for McDonald's arch-rival Burger King. He also was the spokesman for the Days Inn hotel chain, appearing in their commercials from 1993 until 1997.

Scott went into semi-retirement in early 1996 and was succeeded by Al Roker. He continued to appear two days a week on the morning program to wish centenarians a happy birthday. He appeared from the studio lot of WBBH, the NBC affiliate in Fort Myers, Florida.  He was also the commercial voice of Smucker's jellies, which sponsored his birthday tributes on Today.  Scott also continued to substitute for Roker for over a decade afterward, an arrangement that mostly ended after NBC acquired The Weather Channel in 2008 and started using that channel's meteorologists as substitutes (Entertainment Studios would later acquire The Weather Channel from NBC Universal in 2018, three years after Scott retired from television completely).

Scott announced his full retirement from television on December 11, 2015.Todayheld a tribute to Scott on his final day (December 15, 2015) featuring taped highlights from his years with the show. The plaza outside Rockefeller Center was renamed Willard Scott Way in his honor. Several former Today staff came to bid farewell to Scott including Tom Brokaw, Jane Pauley,Katie Couric, and Gene Shalit along with Barbara Bush.

Other TV work

Scott made occasional guest appearances as neighbor "Mr. Poole" on The Hogan Family, where his character was married to Mrs. Poole, played by Edie McClurg. From 1959–62 Scott portrayed Bozo the Clown in the children's television program on NBC Washington, D.C. affiliate WRC-TV. Scott also hosted the NBC telecast of the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade from 1987 to 1997. He was replaced by Matt Lauer in 1998.

For several years in the 1980s, Scott donned a Santa Claus costume for the broadcast of the National Tree-Lighting Ceremony in Washington, D.C.

In 1990 and 1992, Scott also hosted the Pillsbury Bake-Off on CBS (although under contract with CBS' rival NBC).

               https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willard_Scott

The Fate of Afghan Refugees

Afghan refugees are citizens of Afghanistan who were compelled to abandon their country as a result of major wars, persecution, torture and genocide.  The 1978  Saur Revolution followed by the 1979 Soviet invasion marked the first wave of internal displacement and international migration from Afghanistan to neighboring Iran and Pakistan.  Smaller number went north and began residing in various cities across the then Soviet Union.  When the Soviet forces left Afghanistan in February 1989, many refugees returned to their homeland. They again migrated to neighboring countries during and after the Afghan Civil War (1992–1996).

Afghanistan became one of the largest refugee-producing countries in the world.  Over 6 million Afghan refugees were residing in both Iran and Pakistan in the year 2000.  Currently, they are the third largest group after Venezuelan refugees and Syrian refugees.  Some countries that were part of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) established special programs to allow thousands of Afghans to resettle in North America or Europe.  As stateless refugees or asylum seekers, they are protected by the well-established non-refoulement principle and the U.N. Convention Against Torture.

They receive the maximum government benefits and protections in countries such as Australia, Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States.  For example, those that receive green cards under 8 U.S.C. § 1159 can immediately become "non-citizen nationals of the United States" pursuant to 8 U.S.C. § 1452(b), without needing to meet the requirements of 8 U.S.C. § 1427(a).  This allows them to travel with distinct United States passports.  Australia provides a similar benefit to admitted refugees.

Neighboring and Regional Countries

Native people from Afghanistan lawfully reside and work in about 92 countries around the world.  About three in four Afghans have gone through internal and/or external displacement in their life.  Unlike in certain other countries, all admitted refugees and those granted asylum in the United States are statutorily eligible for permanent residency (green card) and then U.S. nationality or U.S. citizenship.  All of their children automatically become Americans if they fulfill all of the requirements of 8 U.S.C. § 1408(4), 8 U.S.C. § 1431(a) or 8 U.S.C. § 1433(a).  This extends their privileges, and gives all of them additional international protection against any unlawful threat or harm.

Pakistan

Approximately 1,438,432 registered Afghan refugees and asylum seekers temporarily reside in Pakistan under the care and protection of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).  Of these, 58.1% reside and work in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 22.8% in Balochistan, 11.7% in Punjab, 4.6% in Sindh, 2.4% in the capital Islamabad and 0.3% in Azad Kashmir.  Most were born and raised in Pakistan in the last four decades but are considered citizens of Afghanistan.  They are free to return to Afghanistan under a voluntary repatriation program or move to any other country of the world and be firmly resettled there.

Since 2002, around 4.4 million Afghan citizens have been repatriated through the UNHCR from Pakistan to Afghanistan.  Members of the Taliban and their family reside among the Afghan refugees in Pakistan.  Others such as the Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) applicants and their family members, who are awaiting to be firmly settled in the United States, are also residing in Pakistan. Regarding the Taliban, Prime Minister of Pakistan stated the following:

What the Taliban are doing or are not doing has nothing to do with us. We are neither responsible, nor the spokesperson for the Taliban.

— Imran Khan, July 2021

Iran

As of October 2020, there are 780,000 registered Afghan refugees and asylum seekers temporarily residing in Iran under the care and protection of the UNHCR.  The majority of them were born in Iran during the last four decades but are still considered citizens of Afghanistan. According to Iranian officials, 2 million citizens of Afghanistan who have no legal documents and over half a million Iranian visa holders also reside in various parts of the country.  Iran has long been used by Afghans to reach Turkey and then Europe where they apply for political asylum.  As in Pakistan, the Afghan refugees are not firmly settled but reside there on a temporary basis.

Iran's initial response towards Afghan refugees, driven by religious solidarity, was an open door policy where Afghans in Iran had freedom of movement to travel or work in any city in addition to subsidies for propane, gasoline, certain food items and even health coverage.  In the early 2000s, Iran's Bureau for Aliens and Foreign Immigrants Affairs (BAFIA) initiated registration of all foreigners, including refugees. It began issuing temporary residence cards to certain Afghans.  In 2000, the Iranian government also initiated a joint repatriation program with the UNHCR.

Laws were passed in order to encourage the repatriation of Afghan refugees, such as limits on employment, areas of residence, and access to services including education.

India

India hosts approximately 15,816 Afghan refugees within its borders.  The majority of them reside in the nation's capital Delhi, specifically in the neighborhoods of Lajpat Nagar, Bhogal and Malviya Nagar.  Some of them operate "shops, restaurants and pharmacies."  Afghan refugees were admitted to India during and after the Soviet–Afghan War (1979-1989).  Much of Afghanistan's Christian community thrives within India.  In 2021, following the end of the latest war in Afghanistan, India has offered an emergency visa (the 'e-Emergency X-Misc Visa') to some citizens of Afghanistan.

International Aid

Due to the ongoing conflict, insecurity, unemployment, and poverty in Afghanistan, the Afghan government has had difficulty coping with its internally displaced population in addition to the influx of returnees in a short period of time. In order to meet the needs of returning refugees, the UN has appealed the international community for $240 million in humanitarian assistance.

In March of 2003, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the UNHCRsigned a tripartite agreement, as an effort to facilitate voluntary repatriation of Afghan refugees.  In 2015, the high level segment of the UNHCR's 66th Executive Committee meeting concentrated on Afghan refugees. This was an effort to bring international attention and promote sustainable solutions for the Afghan refugee situation.

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghan_refugees 

Can Humans Fly Safely to Mars?

Mission would be viable if it doesn’t exceed four years, international research team concludes

From: University of California Los Angeles

August 26, 2021 -- Sending human travelers to Mars would require scientists and engineers to overcome a range of technological and safety obstacles. One of them is the grave risk posed by particle radiation from the sun, distant stars and galaxies.

Answering two key questions would go a long way toward overcoming that hurdle: Would particle radiation pose too grave a threat to human life throughout a round trip to the red planet? And, could the very timing of a mission to Mars help shield astronauts and the spacecraft from the radiation?

In a new article published in the peer-reviewed journal Space Weather, an international team of space scientists, including researchers from UCLA, answers those two questions with a "no" and a "yes."

That is, humans should be able to safely travel to and from Mars, provided that the spacecraft has sufficient shielding and the round trip is shorter than approximately four years. And the timing of a human mission to Mars would indeed make a difference: The scientists determined that the best time for a flight to leave Earth would be when solar activity is at its peak, known as the solar maximum.

The scientists' calculations demonstrate that it would be possible to shield a Mars-bound spacecraft from energetic particles from the sun because, during solar maximum, the most dangerous and energetic particles from distant galaxies are deflected by the enhanced solar activity.

A trip of that length would be conceivable. The average flight to Mars takes about nine months, so depending on the timing of launch and available fuel, it is plausible that a human mission could reach the planet and return to Earth in less than two years, according to Yuri Shprits, a UCLA research geophysicist and co-author of the paper.

"This study shows that while space radiation imposes strict limitations on how heavy the spacecraft can be and the time of launch, and it presents technological difficulties for human missions to Mars, such a mission is viable," said Shprits, who also is head of space physics and space weather at GFZ Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam, Germany.

The researchers recommend a mission not longer than four years because a longer journey would expose astronauts to a dangerously high amount of radiation during the round trip -- even assuming they went when it was relatively safer than at other times. They also report that the main danger to such a flight would be particles from outside of our solar system.

Shprits and colleagues from UCLA, MIT, Moscow's Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology and GFZ Potsdam combined geophysical models of particle radiation for a solar cycle with models for how radiation would affect both human passengers -- including its varying effects on different bodily organs -- and a spacecraft. The modeling determined that having a spacecraft's shell built out of a relatively thick material could help protect astronauts from radiation, but that if the shielding is too thick, it could actually increase the amount of secondary radiation to which they are exposed.

The two main types of hazardous radiation in space are solar energetic particles and galactic cosmic rays; the intensity of each depends on solar activity. Galactic cosmic ray activity is lowest within the six to 12 months after the peak of solar activity, while solar energetic particles' intensity is greatest during solar maximum, Shprits said.

        https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/08/210826111716.htm

Dogs Can Distinguish Human Intentions

Dogs act differently when they realize human actions are intentional or unintentional, a study of over 50 dogs reveals

See Dogs distinguish human intentional and unintentional action | Scientific Reports (nature.com) .

AI for Early Detection and Treatment of Illness

Artificial intelligence (AI) will fundamentally change medicine and healthcare: Diagnostic patient data, e.g. from ECG, EEG or X-ray images, can be analyzed with the help of machine learning, so that diseases can be detected at a very early stage based on subtle changes.

From:  Technische Universität Dresden

August 20, 2021 -- Implanting AI within the human body is still a major technical challenge. Scientists have now succeeded in developing a bio-compatible implantable AI platform that classifies in real time healthy and pathological patterns in biological signals such as heartbeats. It detects pathological changes even without medical supervision.  The research results have now been published in the journal Science Advances.

In this work, the research team led by Prof. Karl Leo, Dr. Hans Kleemann and Matteo Cucchi demonstrates an approach for real-time classification of healthy and diseased bio-signals based on a biocompatible AI chip. They used polymer-based fiber networks that structurally resemble the human brain and enable the neuromorphic AI principle of reservoir computing. The random arrangement of polymer fibers forms a so-called "recurrent network," which allows it to process data, analogous to the human brain. The nonlinearity of these networks enables to amplify even the smallest signal changes, which -- in the case of the heartbeat, for example -- are often difficult for doctors to evaluate. However, the nonlinear transformation using the polymer network makes this possible without any problems.

In trials, the AI was able to differentiate between healthy heartbeats from three common arrhythmias with an 88% accuracy rate. In the process, the polymer network consumed less energy than a pacemaker. The potential applications for implantable AI systems are manifold: For example, they could be used to monitor cardiac arrhythmias or complications after surgery and report them to both doctors and patients via smartphone, allowing for swift medical assistance.

"The vision of combining modern electronics with biology has come a long way in recent years with the development of so-called organic mixed conductors," explains Matteo Cucchi, PhD student and first author of the paper. "So far, however, successes have been limited to simple electronic components such as individual synapses or sensors. Solving complex tasks has not been possible so far. In our research, we have now taken a crucial step toward realizing this vision. By harnessing the power of neuromorphic computing, such as reservoir computing used here, we have succeeded in not only solving complex classification tasks in real time but we will also potentially be able to do this within the human body. This approach will make it possible to develop further intelligent systems in the future that can help save human lives."

        https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/08/210820135346.htm