“The
experts were, by and large, horrific forecasters. Their areas of specialty,
years of experience, and (for some) access to classified information made no
difference. They were bad at short-term forecasting and bad at long-term
forecasting. They were bad at forecasting in every domain.” – David Epstein in the article “The Peculiar
Blindness of Experts” in the June, 2019 Atlantic .
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/how-to-predict-the-future/588040/
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/how-to-predict-the-future/588040/
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