Wind suffers worst Q1 of capacity
growth in 7 years; solar surgesby Charlotte Cox, SNL, May 16, 2013The weak quarter comes in the wake of a huge surge of installations in 2012, which saw 13,329 MW installed ahead of the scheduled expiration of the production tax credit. The fourth quarter of 2012 alone saw 8,054 MW of capacity brought online, more than twice the amount in any prior quarter. The fourth quarter of each year since 2000 has been the industry's strongest, particularly in years when the production tax credit was scheduled to expire.
That trend may continue, but fourth-quarter booms are likely to be reduced latest version of the production tax credit passed by Congress early this year. That revised policy extends the PTC through 2013, but requires only that projects begin construction or meet a safe harbor clause by the deadline instead of begin commercial operations, putting less pressure on projects to all come online at the same time.
Given that safe harbor provision and the time required to build a wind project, turbine manufacturers expect only limited installations this year followed by an increase in new capacity in 2014 as projects are able to begin operations.
The solar industry, meanwhile, had its best first quarter ever for utility-scale solar generation. The 297 MW completed during the quarter more than doubled the 123 MW completed in the first quarter of 2012. Along with wind, solar capacity peaked in the fourth quarter of 2012, with 841 MW installed, more than twice the amount in any prior quarter. Solar projects are subject to different federal incentives, including the investment tax credit, which steps down from 30% to 10% at the end of 2016.
More (with graphs and links) at:
http://www.snl.com/InteractiveX/Article.aspx?cdid=A-17680958-13088
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