Scary Book About Robots

Rise of the Robots: Technology
and the Threat of a Jobless Future
by Martin Ford

Summary from Amazon.com

What are the jobs of the future? How many will there be? And who will have them? We might imagine—and hope—that today’s industrial revolution will unfold like the last: even as some jobs are eliminated, more will be created to deal with the new innovations of a new era. In Rise of the Robots, Silicon Valley entrepreneur Martin Ford argues that this is absolutely not the case. As technology continues to accelerate and machines begin taking care of themselves, fewer people will be necessary. Artificial intelligence is already well on its way to making “good jobs” obsolete: many paralegals, journalists, office workers, and even computer programmers are poised to be replaced by robots and smart software. As progress continues, blue and white collar jobs alike will evaporate, squeezing working- and middle-class families ever further. At the same time, households are under assault from exploding costs, especially from the two major industries—education and health care—that, so far, have not been transformed by information technology. The result could well be massive unemployment and inequality as well as the implosion of the consumer economy itself.

In Rise of the Robots, Ford details what machine intelligence and robotics can accomplish, and implores employers, scholars, and policy makers alike to face the implications. The past solutions to technological disruption, especially more training and education, aren’t going to work, and we must decide, now, whether the future will see broad-based prosperity or catastrophic levels of inequality and economic insecurity. Rise of the Robots is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand what accelerating technology means for their own economic prospects—not to mention those of their children—as well as for society as a whole.

Customer Review

5 Stars

Must Reading!
Loyd E. Eskildson HALL OF FAME on April 27, 2015

Economists have long derided early 1800s' Luddite 'lump of labor' belief that there was only a fixed amount of work to be done, and that labor-saving devices would detract from available jobs. Historically, that has been far from the case in the U.S. - advancing technology has steadily brought more prosperity for all. Even the mechanization of American agriculture, despite eliminating millions of jobs, failed to create massive unemployment - millions more new jobs became available in manufacturing. Then came automation and sending jobs to Mexico and the Far East (outsourcing, globalization, offshoring) - those lost jobs were replaced by new service jobs, often offering better wages. Until now.

America's economy is now obviously stuck in a rut, notwithstanding the almost daily reports of new technologies, green products, and purportedly beneficial free trade pacts. In fact, author Ford (and others) tells us we're now realizing this formerly symbiotic relationship between increasing productivity and rising standards of living began weakening in the 1970s. In a 1/2/2010 article, the Washington Post reported that the just completed first decade of the 21st century brought no new jobs, a first since the Great Depression. This 'lost decade' is especially astonishing when one also realizes our economy needs to create about a million jobs/year just to keep up with growth in the size of the workforce. Meanwhile, income inequality has rebounded, reaching levels not seen since 1929

Ford (mistakenly) attributes this new economy entirely to automation, severely underestimating the impact of offshoring. Regardless, automation has also been a major contributor to job losses both in manufacturing and service sectors, and underlying automation's increasingly rapid (geometric) growth - Moore's Law, applied to both computer power and memory. Both areas are seeing a rough doubling in capability every two years - continuing a pace that began about 40 years ago and now bringing unimaginable (scope and pace) change throughout our economy.

We now have experimental self-driving cars, IBM's 'Watson' defeating all-time Jeopardy! champions, innumerable 'ugly teller' ATMs taking the place much more attractive tellers, airplanes can now largely fly themselves, computers interpret some medical images, much legal discovery work now is performed far faster and cheaper with scanners and PC programs, cash registers not only automatically calculate change due - they also input customer-specific data into huge databases, meetings no longer require expensive and time-consuming travel, hardware stores are testing robots as greeters that also help direct customers and are able to immediately tell them if a part they're looking for is in stock, robots are becoming cheaper and much more easily programmable, etc. Thus, wages for new college graduates have been declining in real terms over the past decade and up to half of new graduates are forced to take jobs that don't require a college degree.

Two sectors have resisted automation - education and health care. The latter is slowly moving forward, helped by the accumulation and analyses of massive amounts of data that will slowly unravel a better understanding of 'What works' (many treatments don't help or are even harmful; regardless, many generally helpful treatments don't work for all patient situations), assist providers in accurate diagnoses (IBM's Watson is already training for this role) and providing helpful treatment reminders. Meanwhile, in the higher-education realm, MOOCs have been introduced, found wanting, and are now being improved and formally incorporated into degree/certificate programs. Elementary and high-schools have been the most resistant - however, adaptive learning has been introduced there and is also being steadily improved.

The fastest-growing market for robots is China - installations have grown about 25%/year since 2005, despite its relatively low wage rates. Another likely surprise - the source of much robot innovation. Microsoft's Xbox 360 console (available for $150) uses a webcam-like device that incorporates 3D machine vision capability that allows interaction simply by gesturing and moving within view of its camera. New 'Baxter' robots (about $20,000, can be used for light assembly, transferring parts between conveyers, packing product, tending machining operations) can be trained simply by moving its arms through the required motions - that robot can then send its 'learning' to others.

Standardized software and hardware building blocks have brought an explosion of application software for PCs, iPhones, iPads, Android apps, etc. Ford sees this pattern repeating with robots.

Ford's forecasts, unfortunately, cannot be taken at face value. For example, he sees 're-shoring' (bringing manufacturing jobs back to America) as becoming a major force, thanks to automation. Maybe. But will American robot manufacturing be competitive with Chinese robot manufacturing? If robots will tilt the playing field so much back in our favor, why are auto manufacturing building new plants in Mexico? And his claim that robots will allow siting American manufacturing closer to users ignores that reality of scale economies and the powerful existing transportation economies created by 1.5 mile-long trains transporting cargo containers across the U.S. Some industries will benefit (eg. fashion clothes), others will not.

Low wages and nearly complete lack of benefits have drawn intensive criticism and media coverage for the fast-food industry. Yet, when McDonald's launched a high-profile 2011 initiative to hire 50,000 new workers in a single day, it received over one million applications. Meanwhile, Momentum Machines is working to fully automate production of gourmet-quality hamburgers, believing its device will pay for itself in less than a year. Another potential advantage - improved hygiene as fewer workers would come in contact with the food.

'Retail worker' is another sector with very-high employment numbers. There we already have disruption via online retailers like Amazon and Netflix. Once jobs move to a warehouse they become far easier to automate - eg. Amazon is now placing Kiva robots (small devices that bring specific shelves to workers, rather than having workers walk to shelves) and one Wall Street analyst estimates those robots will allow Amazon to cut fulfillment costs up to 40%. Kroger warehouses are working on an even more sophisticated system eliminating labor used for storing items in its warehouses and preparing pallets for store delivery. Meanwhile, Netflix has driven Blockbuster etc. out of business, and Amazon et al have recently eliminated Borders and Circuit City from the landscape, and eg. movie rental kiosks (eg. Redbox) seem to be an anachronism,.

Ford then continues, considering the impact of robots on agriculture, and more intellectual realms.

http://www.amazon.com/Rise-Robots-Technology-Threat-Jobless/dp/0465059996/ref=pd_cp_14_4?ie=UTF8&refRID=00FCWQW4PABWHDKEF5QD