Friday, July 31, 2020

No Congressional Bailout for Illinois

By the Chicago Tribune Editorial Board

July 27, 2020 -- With Congress debating another relief package to protect the economy from the coronavirus pandemic, state governments likely will receive federal money to offset revenue losses, Illinois included.

Please, Washington: Don’t turn this fifth go-round in COVID-19 aid into a bailout of poorly managed states like ours.

Any money flowing to Illinois should come with strings attached to ensure federal money is reserved strictly for the purpose of addressing virus-related losses. Insist that funds coming here are commensurate with those going to other states. Demand transparency for every dime spent. Don’t let federal aid for a global health pandemic expand into a rescue effort of Illinois for its decades of reckless state government spending.

Why the training wheels for Illinois? Senate President Don Harmon put it in writing. In April, he wrote to members of Illinois’ congressional delegation asking for $41.6 billion in coronavirus aid, including $10 billion for Illinois pensions. It was an outrageous request following decades of overspending. Illinois’ credit rating is among the nation’s worst. That “ask” had little to do with public health and everything to do with the irresponsible habits of Illinois politicians. Don’t be fooled.

“I realize I’ve asked for a lot, but this is an unprecedented situation, and we face the reality that there likely will be additional, unanticipated costs that could result in future requests for assistance,” Harmon, who has been in office since 2003, wrote in the letter.

It quickly was panned.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in an April radio interview responded: “You raised yourself the important issue of what states have done, many of them have done to themselves, with their pension programs,” he said. “There’s not going to be any desire on the Republican side to bail out state pensions by borrowing money from future generations.”

He should hold firm today. Illinois won’t learn its lesson, control spending and become fiscally sound if the option of being “saved by Washington” exists. And remember, we’re only talking federal taxpayer dollars vs. state. It’s all taxpayer money. It’s yours.

“Illinois is ground zero for mismanaged pensions and offers instructive lessons on what not to do. It spends the most in the nation on pensions as a percentage of state and local revenue collections, about double the national average. It increased inflation-adjusted pension spending by more than 500% since 2000. But despite this first-in-the-nation spending, Illinois also has the worst pension-debt-to-revenue ratio among U.S. states, according to Moody’s,” Adam Schuster of the Illinois Policy Institute wrote earlier this month.

Digging Illinois out of its hole should not be the responsibility of taxpayers in Minnesota or Nevada or Texas. Ignore the specious argument that because Illinois sends more federal income taxes to Washington than it receives, it “deserves” more coronavirus aid. It’s unconvincing.

If Illinois is home to more high earners than other states, that doesn’t justify a bailout. Nothing does. Besides, state Democrats led by Gov. J.B. Pritzker already are using the “we have lots of high earners” argument to pursue a progressive tax structure.

Here’s our advice, and from fiscal watchdogs, including the nonpartisan Truth in Accounting: If Congress provides aid based on revenue losses, those should be actual, provable losses rather than projections.

Money should be given quarterly based on comparative revenue from the state’s previous fiscal year, evaluated from an independent, outside group. Back up those figures with audited numbers, not from within state government or any elected official’s office.

If Congress really wanted to help Illinois help itself, it would tie aid to a requirement that Illinois devise a workable plan to get its fiscal house in order. That includes pension costs, the biggest driver of Illinois’ financial instability.

Why do we have such little faith in Illinois pols to manage the people’s money responsibly? Because we, like you, live here.

Since 2003, Democrats have controlled the state legislature and failed to address rising pension unfunded liabilities. That year, under Gov. Rod Blagojevich, Illinois borrowed $10 billion and still shorted the pension funds. Lawmakers skipped full payments to the pension funds in 2006 and 2007, then borrowed again to make partial pension payments in subsequent budget years.

Even after raising income taxes 67% for four years in 2011, and after another tax hike in 2017 with GOP support, this state’s balance sheet remains a mess. We’ll ask: How is it possible to accumulate for more than a decade billions in unpaid bills and unfunded pension obligations, and still leave Springfield every May claiming to have a balanced budget?

So we have learned: Give Illinois money, and the politicians will mismanage it.

It’s time to give state government its own hard lesson, for the future benefit of everyone who lives and works here, and for taxpayers around the country who shouldn’t have to pay for our mistakes: No bailout. Lots of strings attached to any federal aid. Don’t enable Illinois leaders with a blank check.

Editorials reflect the opinion of the Chicago Tribune Editorial Board.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/editorials/ct-edit-congress-illinois-bailout-coronavirus-package-20200728-dmkbcfhuwre5zhwnu4fxivuwye-story.html


Thursday, July 30, 2020

A Test for Early Alzheimer’s

New blood test shows great promise in the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease

Lund University – July 29, 2020 -- A new blood test demonstrated remarkable promise in discriminating between persons with and without Alzheimer's disease.  Persons at known genetic risk may be able to detect the disease as early as 20 years before the onset of cognitive impairment, according to a large international study.  The results were published July 29 in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) and simultaneously presented at the Alzheimer's Association International Conference.

For many years, the diagnosis of Alzheimer's has been based on the characterization of amyloid plaques and tau tangles in the brain, typically after a person dies. An inexpensive and widely available blood test for the presence of plaques and tangles would have a profound impact on Alzheimer's research and care. According to the new study, measurements of phospho-tau217 (p-tau217), one of the tau proteins found in tangles, could provide a relatively sensitive and accurate indicator of both plaques and tangles -- corresponding to the diagnosis of Alzheimer's -- in living people.

"The p-tau217 blood test has great promise in the diagnosis, early detection, and study of Alzheimer's," said Oskar Hansson, MD, PhD, Professor of Clinical Memory Research at Lund University, Sweden, who leads the Swedish BioFINDER Study and senior author on the study who spearheaded the international collaborative effort. "While more work is needed to optimize the assay and test it in other people before it becomes available in the clinic, the blood test might become especially useful to improve the recognition, diagnosis, and care of people in the primary care setting."

Researchers evaluated a new p-tau217 blood test in 1,402 cognitively impaired and unimpaired research participants from well-known studies in Arizona, Sweden, and Colombia. The study, which was coordinated from Lund University in Sweden, included 81 Arizona participants in Banner Sun Health Research Institute's Brain Donation program who had clinical assessments and provided blood samples in their last years of life and then had neuropathological assessments after they died; 699 participants in the Swedish BioFINDER Study who had clinical, brain imaging, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and blood-based biomarker assessments; and 522 Colombian autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease (ADAD)-causing mutation carriers and non-carriers from the world's largest ADAD cohort.

  • In the Arizona (Banner Sun Health Research Institute) Brain Donation Cohort, the plasma p-tau217 assay discriminated between Arizona Brain donors with and without the subsequent neuropathological diagnosis of "intermediate or high likelihood Alzheimer's" (i.e., characterized by plaques, as well as tangles that have at least spread to temporal lobe memory areas or beyond) with 89% accuracy; it distinguished between those with and without a diagnosis of "high likelihood Alzheimer's" with 98% accuracy; and higher ptau217 measurements were correlated with higher brain tangle counts only in those persons who also had amyloid plaques.
  • In the Swedish BioFINDER Study, the assay discriminated between persons with the clinical diagnoses of Alzheimer's and other neurodegenerative diseases with 96% accuracy, similar to tau PET scans and CSF biomarkers and better than several other blood tests and MRI measurements; and it distinguished between those with and without an abnormal tau PET scan with 93% accuracy.
  • In the Colombia Cohort, the assay began to distinguish between mutation carriers and non-carriers 20 years before their estimated age at the onset of mild cognitive impairment.

In each of these analyses, p-tau217 (a major component of Alzheimer's disease-related tau tangles) performed better than p-tau181 (another component of tau tangles and a blood test recently found to have promise in the diagnosis of Alzheimer's) and several other studied blood tests.

Other study leaders include Jeffrey Dage, PhD, from Eli Lilly and Company, who developed the p-tau217 assay, co-first authors Sebastian Palmqvist, MD, PhD, and Shorena Janelidz, PhD, from Lund University, and Eric Reiman, MD, Banner Alzheimer's Institute, who organized the analysis of Arizona and Colombian cohort data.

In the last two years, researchers have made great progress in the development of amyloid blood tests, providing valuable information about one of the two cardinal features of Alzheimer's. While more work is needed before the test is ready for use in the clinic, a p-tau217 blood test has the potential to provide information about both plaques and tangles, corresponding to the diagnosis of Alzheimer's. It has the potential to advance the disease's research and care in other important ways.

"Blood tests like p-tau217 have the potential to revolutionize Alzheimer's research, treatment and prevention trials, and clinical care," said Eric Reiman, MD, Executive Director of Banner Alzheimer's Institute in Phoenix and a senior author on the study.

"While there's more work to do, I anticipate that their impact in both the research and clinical setting will become readily apparent within the next two years."

Alzheimer's is a debilitating and incurable disease that affects an estimated 5.8 million Americans age 65 and older. Without the discovery of successful prevention therapies, the number of U.S. cases is projected to reach nearly 14 million by 2050.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200729114404.htm


Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Certain Environmental Views Are Offensive

Prominent Environmentalist Censored By Forbes, Called 'White Supremacist' For Writing Sense About Climate Change

By Alex Berezow, PhD — July 28, 2020

A whopping 62% of Americans are afraid to share some of their political views because somebody might be offended. As we all know now, if you offend somebody, you can lose your job and have your life destroyed. Michael Shellenberger, a prominent environmentalist who believes that climate alarmism is misguided, is feeling the fury of the mob.

Several years ago, I received an invitation to attend a conference hosted by the Breakthrough Institute, an organization that promotes technological solutions to problems like climate change.

I'm glad I went, not just because they paid for my trip to a luxurious resort by the Golden Gate Bridge in Sausalito. For the first time ever, I met environmentalists that I actually agreed with. The group has a generally optimistic view of our life on this planet, and while it believes climate change is a serious issue that needs to be addressed, it also believes that we can fix it using technology. Hence, they refer to themselves as ecomodernists, and I proudly apply that label to myself.

Most importantly, Breakthrough views environmental issues through a humanitarian lens; that is, the group believes that a prosperous planet first and foremost needs prosperous people. Encouragingly, the conference was attended by some of the brightest minds from across the ideological spectrum, and I was grateful to be invited several years in a row.

One of the founders of the Breakthrough Institute is Michael Shellenberger, an intellectual heavyweight who has been an environmental activist for 30 years and will serve as a reviewer on the UN's next major climate report. He just wrote a new book called Apocalypse Never that debunks several myths about climate change. An article posted on the website of his new organization, Environmental Progress, provides a good summary. It also apologizes for climate fearmongering, and it provides a list of facts that contradict the prominent media narrative, which we reprint here:

  • Humans are not causing a “sixth mass extinction”
  • The Amazon is not “the lungs of the world”
  • Climate change is not making natural disasters worse
  • Fires have declined 25% around the world since 2003
  • The amount of land we use for meat — humankind’s biggest use of land — has declined by an area nearly as large as Alaska
  • The build-up of wood fuel and more houses near forests, not climate change, explain why there are more, and more dangerous, fires in Australia and California
  • Carbon emissions are declining in most rich nations and have been declining in Britain, Germany, and France since the mid-1970s
  • Netherlands became rich not poor while adapting to life below sea level
  • We produce 25% more food than we need and food surpluses will continue to rise as the world gets hotter
  • Habitat loss and the direct killing of wild animals are bigger threats to species than climate change
  • Wood fuel is far worse for people and wildlife than fossil fuels
  • Preventing future pandemics requires more not less “industrial” agriculture

I cannot independently verify each of those claims, but I trust that Mr. Shellenberger has made them in good faith based on his best understanding of the evidence. Yet, anything that goes against the "we're all going to die" narrative is automatically controversial. It's so controversial, in fact, that one journalist called Mr. Shellenberger a white supremacist and Forbes censored the article, where it was originally published.

The Smearing of Michael Shellenberger

Why Forbes deleted the article is anybody's guess. Mr. Shellenberger claims it was censorship. The Guardian says the article violated Forbes's policy on self-promotion. (This is risible; the entire point of having a Forbes blog is self-promotion.) Canada's National Post couldn't get an answer from Forbes. One is forced to conclude that Forbes received backlash and caved to the pressure.

But this pales in comparison to the bizarre ad hominem attack to which he was subjected. Eric Holthaus, an allegedly reputable journalist who identifies as an "ecosocialist," called Mr. Shellenberger a climate delayer (whatever that is) and a white supremacist.

 

What does climate change have to do with white supremacy? Well, nothing, unless you subscribe to critical race theory, which has at its core the belief that all of society -- from the economy to our culture -- is fundamentally racist and irredeemably broken. According to the theory, which has its roots in Marxism, every member of society is part of an oppression hierarchy. White males are at the top (and are the ultimate oppressors), and everybody else exists below them (the oppressed). Are you a poor, white male living in rural West Virginia and addicted to opioids? Too bad. You're still an oppressor.

Based on their words and behavior, critical race theory's adherents appear to believe that the only way to fix societal injustice is to burn everything down and start over. Any disagreement with this all-encompassing worldview -- which includes radical action on climate change as a way to repent for the sins of white males since the beginning of time -- is, by definition, racist. Such a belief obviously makes dialogue impossible, but it's increasingly common on college campuses and in the media.

The First Amendment Is on Life Support

I have a job that depends on exercising my First Amendment right to free speech, which is why I get very angry over incidents like this. While it's true that Mr. Shellenberger's right to free speech wasn't curbed by the government -- and therefore no technical violation of the First Amendment occurred -- the spirit of the First Amendment has been violated. With the advent of "cancel culture," this is happening more and more and more often.

Voltaire is dubiously credited with saying, "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." That sentiment, which forms the entire basis of the First Amendment, is gone from America. A whopping 62% of Americans are afraid to share some of their political views because somebody might be offended. As we all know now, if you offend somebody, you can lose your job and have your life destroyed.

No law can fix this. Only a change of heart can.

https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/07/28/prominent-environmentalist-censored-forbes-called-white-supremacist-writing-sense-about-climate-14938

See also:  https://quillette.com/2020/07/29/why-democrats-are-trying-to-shut-me-up-about-climate-change-and-renewables/

Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Diagnosis Solves Medical Mysteries


Health Care Problems Are Mysteries, Not Puzzles, Says Bestselling Author

ANAHEIM, Calif. – November 12, 2016 -- “The great challenge of the 21st century is to reorient ourselves to solving mysteries,” Malcolm Gladwell, five-time New York Times bestselling writer and staff writer for The New Yorker, said here at the plenary session during the American Academy of Optometry annual meeting.

Gladwell said a transformation is occurring in problem solving – a shift from problems based on puzzles, where finding more information is key, to mysteries, which are defined by making sense of all available information.

The theory stems from Gregory Treverton, PhD, MPP, chairman of the National Intelligence Council, he explained.

To illustrate a puzzle, Gladwell used the Cuban Missile Crisis from 1962 as an example.

In the summer of 1962, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) observed Russia sending more than 30 ships to Cuba and unloading cargo. The CIA sent a plane to take photographs of the cargo, which made the agency confident that the cargo was missiles pointed at the U.S., Gladwell said.

“Think about that problem from the CIA’s perspective,” Gladwell proposed. “They questioned whether their enemies were up to something and they didn’t know what it was, so they went out to gather data to find what the problem was. The data gave them a clear example of what the problem was.”

A puzzle is a problem you solve by gathering more information, he said.

In the case of Sept. 11, 2001, the opposite was happening, he said.

With the Cuban Missile Crisis, the solution was to gather more information. With 9/11, we already had the information; the U.S. government knew al Qaeda was preparing something for the fall, he said.

“The task in this case was not gathering information on something we didn’t know enough about, it was making sense of the plethora of information that we already had,” he said.

Based on Senate reports, Gladwell read that the Federal Bureau of Investigation had 66,000 researched terrorist leads in the summer of 2001.

“They couldn’t find the message in all of the noise,” he said. “It is profoundly different from the problem we faced with the Cuban Missile Crisis.”
Treverton says you cannot solve a problem unless you know what category it belongs in, Gladwell added.

Our world has been designed to solve puzzles, he said.

“When we train professionals or build schools of medicine, business or law, they have all been set up based on the expectations that the problems professionals will face can be solved by puzzles, but the world we are living in isn’t a puzzle world anymore, it’s a mystery world,” he said. “The world of health care has failed to appreciate the meaning of this shift from puzzle to mystery.”

Electronic health care records, for example, equate to doctors now having to spend more time at a computer instead of having more time to establish trust with their patients, he said, and the concern for time is a big one.

The average patient visit has stayed the same as it was decades ago, he said, “which is crazy, because the number of things that need to be discussed has grown exponentially. Treatments have increased, information on diseases and conditions has [grown] and now patients are armed with more information, so you can’t have a simple conversation anymore, you have to have a complex one.”

The pressure from those outside of the industry to standardize care with a one-size-fits-all model represents the puzzle world, while patients, science and medicine are pushing for quality care, from an individualized model of the mystery universe, he said.

“We have a world that is insisting increasingly that health care is a puzzle, and then we have health care itself, which is realizing that it is a mystery. These two things are in conflict,” he said.

“I feel this way as a patient,” he continued. “What I want is the time, attention, care and judgment of a person with whom I’m sharing the most intimate details of my life. I don’t want someone just checking a box. I want an understanding of the nature of the problems.”
He said that to reshape the health care system, we must all speak up. –by Abigail Sutton

Reference:
Gladwell M. Current state of health care and research. Presented at: American Academy of Optometry annual meeting. November 8-13, 2016; Anaheim, Calif.

Disclosure: Gladwell is the author of five New York Times bestsellers and has been a staff writer for The New Yorker since 1996.


Monday, July 27, 2020

Olivia de Havilland Dies


Dame Olivia Mary de Havilland DBE (/də ˈhævɪlənd/; July 1, 1916 – July 26, 2020) was a British-American actress. The major works of her cinematic career spanned from 1935 to 1988.  She appeared in 49 feature films, and was one of the leading actresses of her time. She was the last major surviving star from the Golden Age of Hollywood Cinema and oldest living Academy Award winner, until her death in July, 2020. Her younger sister was actress Joan Fontaine.

De Havilland first came to prominence by forming a screen couple with Errol Flynn in adventure films such as Captain Blood (1935) and The Adventures of Robin Hood (1938). One of her best-known roles is that of Melanie Hamilton in the classic film Gone with the Wind (1939), for which she received her first of five Oscar nominations, the only one for Best Supporting Actress.

                                                       De Havilland as Melanie Hamilton

De Havilland departed from ingénue roles in the 1940s and later received acclaim for her performances in Hold Back the Dawn (1941), To Each His Own (1946), The Snake Pit (1948), and The Heiress (1949), receiving nominations for Best Actress for each, winning for To Each His Own and The Heiress. She was also successful in work on stage and television. De Havilland lived in Paris from the 1950s, and received honors such as the National Medal of the Arts, the Légion d'honneur, and the appointment to Dame Commander of the Order of the British Empire.

In addition to her film career, de Havilland continued her work in the theatre, appearing three times on Broadway, in Romeo and Juliet (1951), Candida (1952), and A Gift of Time (1962). She also worked in television, appearing in the successful miniseries Roots: The Next Generations (1979) and Anastasia: The Mystery of Anna (1986), for which she received a Primetime Emmy Award nomination and won the Golden Globe Award for Best Supporting Actress in a Television Movie or Series. During her film career, de Havilland also collected two New York Film Critics Circle Awards, the National Board of Review Award for Best Actress, and the Venice Film Festival Volpi Cup. For her contributions to the motion picture industry, she received a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame. She and her sister remain the only siblings to have won major acting Academy Awards and the only sisters to have won any Academy Awards.

Career Assessment and Legacy

De Havilland's career spanned 53 years, from 1935 to 1988. During that time, she appeared in 49 feature films, and was one of the leading movie stars during the golden age of Classical Hollywood. 

She began her career playing demure ingénues opposite male stars such as Errol Flynn, with whom she made her breakout film Captain Blood in 1935. They would go on to make eight more feature films together, and became one of Hollywood's most successful on-screen romantic pairings. Her range of performances included roles in most major movie genres. Following her film debut in the Shakespeare adaptation A Midsummer Night's Dream, de Havilland achieved her initial popularity in romantic comedies, such as The Great Garrick and Hard to Get, and Western adventure films, such as Dodge City and Santa Fe Trail. In her later career, she was most successful in drama films, such as In This Our Life and Light in the Piazza, and psychological dramas playing non-glamorous characters in films such as The Dark MirrorThe Snake Pit, and Hush...Hush, Sweet Charlotte.

During her career, de Havilland won two Academy Awards (To Each His Own and The Heiress), two Golden Globe Awards (The Heiress and Anastasia: The Mystery of Anna), two New York Film Critics Circle Awards (The Snake Pit and The Heiress), the National Board of Review Award, and the Venice Film Festival Volpi Cup (The Snake Pit), and a Primetime Emmy Award nomination (Anastasia: The Mystery of Anna).

For her contributions to the motion picture industry, de Havilland received a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame at 6762 Hollywood Boulevard on February 8, 1960. Since her retirement in 1988, her lifetime contribution to the arts has been honoured on two continents. In 1998, she received an honorary doctorate from the University of Hertfordshire in England.

In 2006, she was inducted into the Online Film & Television Association Award Film Hall of Fame.
The moving-image collection of Olivia de Havilland is held at the Academy Film Archive, which preserved a nitrate reel of a screen test for Danton, Max Reinhardt's never-produced follow-up to A Midsummer Night's Dream (1935).

De Havilland, as a confidante and friend of Bette Davis, is featured in the series Feud: Bette and Joan, portrayed by Catherine Zeta-Jones. In the series, de Havilland reflects on the origins and depth of the Davis-Crawford feud and how it affected contemporary female Hollywood stars. On June 30, 2017, a day before her 101st birthday, she filed a lawsuit against FX Networks and producer Ryan Murphy for inaccurately portraying her and using her likeness without permission. Although FX attempted to strike the suit as a strategic lawsuit against public participation, Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge Holly Kendig denied the motion in September 2017, and also granted de Havilland's request to advance the trial date (a motion for preference) and set trial for November 2017. An interlocutory appeal of Judge Kendig's ruling was argued in March 2018. A three-justice panel of the California Court of Appeal of the Second District ruled against the defamation suit brought by De Havilland (that is, by ruling the trial court erred in denying the defendants' motion to strike), in a published opinion by Justice Anne Egerton that affirmed the right of filmmakers to embellish the historical record and that such portrayals are protected by the First Amendment.  De Havilland appealed the decision to the Supreme Court in September 2018, which declined to review the case.

Her Death  

De Havilland died of natural causes in her sleep at her home in Paris, France, on July 26, 2020, at the age of 104.


Sunday, July 26, 2020

Saturday, July 25, 2020

The Dictatorship of Armas


Guatemala Begins Decades of Chaos

Carlos Castillo Armas (locally ['kaɾlos kas'tiʝo 'aɾmas]; November 4, 1914 – July 26, 1957) was a Guatemalan military officer and politician who was the 28th  president of Guatemala, serving from 1954 to 1957 after taking power in a coup d'état. A member of the right-wing National Liberation Movement  (MLN) party, his  authoritarian  government was closely allied with the United States.
                                                                   Armas in 1954

Born to a planter, out of wedlock, Castillo Armas was educated at Guatemala's military academy. A protégé of Colonel Francisco Javier Arana, he joined Arana's forces during the 1944 uprising against 
President Federico Ponce Vaides. This began the Guatemalan Revolution and the introduction of representative democracy to the country. Castillo Armas joined the General Staff and became director of the military academy. Arana and Castillo Armas opposed the newly elected government of Juan José Arévalo; after Arana's failed 1949 coup, Castillo Armas went into exile in Honduras. Seeking support for another revolt, he came to the attention of the US Central Intelligence Agency(CIA). In 1950 he launched   a failed assault on Guatemala City, before escaping back to Honduras. Influenced by Cold War fears of communism and the pressure from the United Fruit Company, in 1952 the US government of President Harry Truman authorized Operation PBFORTUNE, a plot to overthrow Arévalo's leftist successor, President Jacobo Árbenz. Castillo Armas was to lead the coup, but the plan was abandoned before being revived in a new form by US President Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1953.

In June 1954, Castillo Armas led 480 CIA-trained soldiers into Guatemala, backed by US-supplied aircraft. Despite initial setbacks to the rebel forces, US support for the rebels made the Guatemalan army reluctant to fight, and Árbenz resigned on June 27. A series of military juntas briefly held power during negotiations that ended with Castillo Armas assuming the presidency on July 7. Castillo Armas consolidated his power in an October 1954 election, in which he was the only candidate; the MLN, which he led, was the only party allowed to contest congressional elections. Árbenz's popular agricultural reform was largely rolled back, with land confiscated from small farmers and returned to large landowners. Castillo Armas cracked down on unions and peasant organizations, arresting and killing thousands. He created a National Committee of Defense Against Communism, which investigated over 70,000 people and added 10 percent of the population to a list of suspected communists.

Castillo Armas faced significant internal resistance, which was blamed on communist agitation. The government, plagued by corruption and soaring debt, became dependent on aid from the US. In 1957 Castillo Armas was assassinated by a presidential guard with leftist sympathies. He was the first of a series of authoritarian rulers in Guatemala who were close allies of the US. His reversal of the reforms of his predecessors sparked a series of leftist insurgencies in the country after his death, culminating in the Guatemalan Civil War of 1960 to 1996.

Authoritarian Rule 

Prior to the 1954 coup, Castillo Armas had been reluctant to discuss how he would govern the country. He had never articulated any particular philosophy, which had worried his CIA contacts.  The closest he came to doing so was the "Plan de Tegucigalpa", a manifesto issued on December 23, 1953 that criticized the "Sovietization of Guatemala".  Castillo Armas had expressed sympathy for justicialismo, the philosophy supported by Juan Perón, the President of Argentina.

Upon taking power Castillo Armas, worried that he lacked popular support, attempted to eliminate all opposition. He quickly arrested many thousands of opposition leaders, branding them communists. Detention camps were built to hold the prisoners when the jails exceeded their capacity. Historians have estimated that more than 3,000 people were arrested following the coup, and that approximately 1,000 agricultural workers were killed by Castillo Armas's troops in the province of Tiquisate. Acting on the advice of Dulles, Castillo Armas also detained a number of citizens trying to flee the country. 

He also created a National Committee of Defense Against Communism (CDNCC), with sweeping powers of arrest, detention, and deportation. Over the next few years, the committee investigated nearly 70,000 people. Many were imprisoned, executed, or disappeared, frequently without trial.

In August 1954, the government passed Decree 59, which permitted the security forces to detain anybody on the blacklist of the CDNCC for six months without trial. The eventual list of suspected communists compiled by the CDNCC included one in every ten adults in the country. Attempts were also made to eliminate from government positions people who had gained them under Árbenz. All political parties, labor unions, and peasant organizations were outlawed. In histories of the period, Castillo Armas has been referred to as a dictator.


Friday, July 24, 2020

Why Have Courts Abandoned the Scientific Method?


By Joseph Annotti

Sister Mary Isabel was perhaps the greatest teacher I ever had. Among the many lessons she drilled into my classmates and me that has stood the test of time and memory was the scientific method.

Nearly every American was taught the same six steps that serve as a fundamental building block to scientific education: Make an observation, ask a question, form a hypothesis, make a prediction based on the hypothesis, test the prediction, and use the results to make new hypotheses or new predictions.

I have since applied the principles of the scientific method throughout my personal and professional life because it makes sense: One shouldn't make major decisions based on assumptions. Rely on facts.

Yet, a recent decision by a U.S. District Court judge to prohibit scientists from conducting an objective and unbiased research study on a specific chemical’s cancer-causing capability flies in the face of the principles of the scientific method and is further evidence of the growing disconnect between fact-based science and economic coercion in courtrooms across the United States.

It began with two significant—and absolutely contradictory—legal developments surrounding the use of  glyphosate (the active ingredient in the popular herbicide Roundup), a chemical that has been extensively studied and widely used by commercial farmers and backyard gardeners for decades.

In an earlier ruling, a federal judge permanently blocked efforts by the state of California to require cancer warnings on Roundup, citing overwhelming scientific evidence that such labels would be misleading, as they were not backed up by regulatory findings. His ruling aligned with findings from numerous domestic and international regulatory agencies, all of which have found no association between glyphosate and cancer risk.

While the ruling stood as a significant victory for science, it appears to have not been enough in the court of public opinion—or economics. That same week, Bayer opted to pay more than $10 billion to settle claims that glyphosate had caused non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. While most may believe these funds will find their way to deserving victims, the hard truth is the majority of these funds will go to attorneys.

Bayer made the decision to settle the existing claims rather than spend decades—and incalculable costs—to defend each case in state courts, the ultimate example of the “science vs. settle” dilemma.

However, Bayer and the plaintiffs’ attorneys included a provision to settle all future claims: Attorneys for both sides asked the court to appoint a scientific panel, funded by Bayer, to conduct an independent, unbiased review to evaluate the relationships between glyphosate and cancer. Of note, both sides agreed to accept the researchers’ findings—regardless of outcome—as the basis and precedent for future court decisions, meaning that all future rulings would be based on evidence-backed research. 

Finally, the scientific method to the rescue—or so it would seem.

Unfortunately, the judge poured cold water on the proposed study, saying that judges and juries are capable of making decisions on complex and confusing scientific issues without the benefit of having all the objective evidence available, essentially eliminating the chance to conduct a fair and objective independent review.

This is a massive loss for science and for those who respect expertise in both the courts of law and public opinion. The decision has the potential to elevate emotion over objective evidence in the courtroom, a move that puts businesses and consumers with legitimate claims in limbo and at the discretion of bias.

And it will only proliferate the “jackpot justice” system of mass class action lawsuits that clog courtrooms, force companies to pay billions of dollars in settlements for claims that are not backed by scientific evidence (most of which goes to a handful of large law firms), and increase the prices of countless household products for consumers.

Our teachers taught us better than this. We cannot leave legal decisions involving chemicals up to emotion or assumptions. We need to return to basics—to employing common sense in science, examining objective evidence, and relying on the fundamental building blocks that we were taught as children.

Joseph Annotti is the president and CEO of the Center for Truth in Science.


Thursday, July 23, 2020

The Complexity of Fire

Despite its ubiquity in human life, chemists have still barely unlocked what’s happening amid the flames. Kit Chapman reports
By Kip Chapman for Chemistry World [a publication of the Royal Society of Chemistry]

July 20, 2020 -- On 14 June 2017, the UK woke to images of a black vortex of smoke above a raging inferno. In west London, the 24-storey Grenfell Tower was on fire, the external cladding causing a stack effect – similar to a chimney – spreading its destruction throughout the building. It was the UK’s worst residential fire since the second world war, causing 72 deaths as residents became trapped on the upper floors. Fire scientist Claire Benson remembers watching the news that morning in horror. ‘I woke up that morning and I was furious,’ she recalls. ‘Because it shouldn’t have happened.’

Grenfell, along with other major blazes such as the destruction of Notre Dame Cathedral in France and the 2019/20 wildfires in the US and Australia, has shown how much work still needs to be done to understand how to prevent and control fires. Despite being one of the most familiar phenomena in most people’s lives, it’s surprising how little we truly know about how and why things burn.

Well Worth the Candle

Although it’s more than 170 years since Michael Faraday’s lectures on the chemical history of a candle, we still struggle with a complete understanding of fire. A candle remains, however, a perfect place to start. This is a diffusion flame, where burning happens only at the interface between fuel and air – a region called the reaction zone, which is about 200µg deep. The interior of the flame itself is a completely oxygen-free environment.

But even this can be overly simple, explains Ludovico Cademartiri, an associate professor at the University of Parma, Italy. ‘If you spoke to someone in the street and said “What do you need for fire?” They’d say you need air, you need a fuel, you need combustion. That’s it. It’s not wrong, but it gives a false impression of simplicity. Combustion is the prototypical complex system,’ Cademartiri says. ‘The simplest hydrocarbon combustion – methane and oxygen – produces hundreds of different intermediates and byproducts through hundreds of different chemical reactions occurring at different rates. Those rates depend on temperature, which changes dramatically across a flame. Among the byproducts is soot, which is a solid with a sizeable heat capacity, so will get heated up and glow. For most people it’s hard to grasp how much complexity can hide beneath the reaction of just two reagents.’

This complexity is why fire remains so hard to grasp. While completing his postdoctoral work at Harvard University in the US, Cademartiri worked with fellow postdocs in George Whitesides’ lab and the US Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency to develop flame suppressants. At one point he asked one of the US Navy’s combustion experts when, on a chemical level, a fire is extinguished. ‘I asked if we can really determine the causal chain of events that lead to a specific flame going out. He said no.’

Between 2008–2011 the group’s task was to find alternative means to control fires in enclosed environments, such as the interior of an armoured car, where water damage can be just as devastating. Whitesides’ team focused on tactics to extinguish fires that wouldn’t require suppressants – and succeeded. ‘The combustion of hydrocarbons produces ions and electrons, which become part of the composition of the flame itself. So, effectively, part of a flame is a dilute plasma,’ Cademartiri says. By creating an oscillating, highly concentrated electric field, the team were able to deflect and extinguish flames about a metre tall. The idea proved so popular it was even used by DC Comics, with new Superwoman Lana Lang manipulating electricity to snuff out a fire and defeat Lex Luthor. Unfortunately, in the real world the gradient of the electrical field required meant it couldn’t be scaled up beyond flames with a base of a few centimetres.

The team were also able to use sound waves to suffocate the flame’s reaction zone by hindering convention of air to the flame, Cademartiri says. ‘But we needed very low frequencies, between 55Hz and 60Hz, at about 130 decibels. On the other hand, it could scale much better than the electric field. We thought about using it for something like a wildfire, just trying to contain it. But we were never able to do the feasibility study.’

Where the Wildfires Are

Wildfires are also diffusion flames and present an immense challenge worldwide. In 2019, the US National Interagency Fire Center reported 50,477 wildfires in the US, destroying more than 18,600km2 of land – a five-year low – with annual suppression costs totalling around $3 billion (£2.4 billion). It’s a level of devastation that atmospheric chemist Krystal Vasquez has witnessed first-hand. A PhD candidate at the California Institute of Technology, US, in 2019 she found herself among a team of other scientists and their instruments in the hull of a converted Douglas DC-8. They were flying out of Boise, Idaho to sample the smoke plumes of conflagrations raging across the Pacific Northwest. During an undergraduate internship, Vasquez took part in atmospheric sampling missions across central California and fell in love with flying fieldwork. When she found out there was a seat on a plane assessing wildfires for her PhD, she leapt at the chance to come aboard.

‘There was one fire that we went to that was toward the evening and you could see the glow of the flames and all of the smoke.’ Vasquez recalls. ‘It was pretty wild. The plane is doing zigzags across the plume, and you have to time everything so you can get that one or two seconds when you’re actually in the plume itself. Then you have the excitement of the cabin filling up with smoke, which is frightening. And you have the convection for the heat of the fire, so the plane is turbulent and bouncing. It’s like a fun rollercoaster… you learn to take a lot of [motion-sickness medication] Dramamine.’

The flight was part of the Firex-AQ mission, a joint venture between Nasa, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) and more than 40 partners to assess the complex chemistry of smoke. Vasquez’s role, with another colleague, was operating a time-of-flight ionisation mass spectrometer, which uses a fluorinated reagent ion that clusters with her target compounds. ‘On the flight the team measured aerosols, nitrogen oxides (NOx), hydrocarbons,’ she says. ‘I measured oxygenated hydrocarbons – the oxidation products that end up produced in smoke. Not to brag or anything, but they’re really difficult to measure because they are so reactive. We had to position our instrument at the window of the plane [which has a custom-built air inlet]; a lot of our compounds are super-sticky, such as nitric acid, so we needed to the inlet to be extremely short or they’d get stuck on the walls of the instrument.’

Much of wildfire smoke remains a mystery. Although a previous Firex mission identified the chemical mechanisms of furan-type compounds in the smoke, a large portion of the reactions are still unknown. Isocyanic acid (HNCO) was only found to be up to 30% of NOx in 2010, while there remains a large quantity of unidentified semi-volatile organic compounds in fires that impact modelling. And, even when they have been identified, how they work is not understood. For example, the NOx and volatile organic compounds emitted by the plumes undergo photooxidation but only sometimes produce ozone. This seems to depend on the precursors in the fire, the speed at which the plume cools and how efficiently the NOx is converted into products such as peroxyacetyl nitrate.

‘Wildfires can produce ozone and all these toxic gases,’ Vasquez explains, ‘but the compounds they produce is very dependent on the characteristics of the fire and the relative humidity. The main motivation [of Firex] is to understand the chemistry and composition of smoke plumes, so we can create models that forecast how fires impact air quality and maybe give first responders an idea of how fire might move. We also look at public health and land management, because a lot of farms end up using fire to just clear off the fields before next season. Being able to know what weather conditions are the most appropriate to do that in is important for air quality in the region.’

Dust Devils

While blazes in the wilderness can produce a host of unpleasant gases, an entirely different airborne cocktail can be created in city fires. In Paris, France, restoration scientists from the Historical Monuments Research Laboratory are working in the gutted ruins of Notre Dame de Paris, the historic cathedral where a fire on 15 April 2019 shocked the world. The French government has since pledged to reopen the cathedral within five years, and researchers have pored over its exposed remains to understand historical processes. But from a health perspective, an even greater tragedy has unfolded than the lost art – as the strange yellow tinge to the fire’s smoke revealed.

During the inferno, the hundreds of tonnes of lead that lined the cathedral’s roof melted. It was on a scale never seen before – so much so that Parisian police warned people to wipe their homes and premises to avoid lead poisoning. It wasn’t until September that an investigation by the New York Times revealed the dust deposited around the cathedral was up to 1300 times higher than safety guidelines, with its spread covering much of central Paris.

Such toxic exposure happens every day around the world, albeit on a much smaller scale. Jennifer Keir is an environmental chemist and toxicologist at the University of Ottawa, Canada, who studies exposure of firefighters to heavy metals. The majority of studies have looked at firefighter exposure during training scenarios, Keir explains – but a burning wood pallet in a training house doesn’t reflect the variety of contaminants in a real fire. ‘We wanted to capture what they were being exposed to while on the job during emergencies,’ Keir says. ‘So we collaborated with the Ottawa fire services and looked at urine samples, wipes from their skin and air samples. We found they were significantly exposed. In terms of urinary metabolites, we saw huge spikes after firefighters attended a fire.’ Keir’s samples detected concentrations of metals such as antimony and lead on skin under the firefighters’ protective equipment, as well as increased levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. ‘Some of these bioaccumulate,’ she says. ‘You’ll excrete a lot of them within days, but even when you’re excreting them, they’re still doing damage.’ Not all of the dangers are from the fire, Keir says. Often, protective equipment and firefighting foams include perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), a family of fluorinated compounds used as flame retardants and surfactants but known to be detrimental to health. ‘Somehow that seems to be getting into firefighters as well,’ she notes.

Firefighters Are Significantly Exposed to Contaminants

Understanding exposure is only half of Keir’s work. As firefighters can’t prevent exposure – air flow is needed to keep cool and prevent them overheating during a call-out – she focuses on post-fire decontamination. ‘There’s this movement in the fire service that you immediately wipe down after a fire, because we know about skin exposure. There have been companies promoting wipes to clean skin before firefighters get back to the truck, before they can get back to the station and shower. But there’s been no real scientific studies to look at this, and whether those decontamination methods actually remove a significant amount of the hazards they are exposed to.’ Keir’s work is currently on hold due to the Covid-19 pandemic, but once complete will help protect firefighters when fires do break out.

Razing the Standard 

Perhaps the greatest role for fire scientists is preventing blazes to begin with. Chemists have been involved in fire safety throughout history – from Faraday’s mentor Humphry Davy’s role in safety lamps through to the creation of americium-241, an isotope that does not exist naturally on Earth, for use in smoke detectors. It’s this drive for safety that left Benson so aghast as she saw the Grenfell disaster unfold. A senior lecturer at London South Bank University, Benson’s primary interest is fire in low pressure environments, but she has also worked with the London Fire Brigade and has an interest in the chemistry of materials used for buildings. The problem is that safety standards are just as complex as fire itself.

Perhaps the greatest role for fire scientists is preventing blazes to begin with. Chemists have been involved in fire safety throughout history – from Faraday’s mentor Humphry Davy’s role in safety lamps through to the creation of americium-241, an isotope that does not exist naturally on Earth, for use in smoke detectors. It’s this drive for safety that left Benson so aghast as she saw the Grenfell disaster unfold. A senior lecturer at London South Bank University, Benson’s primary interest is fire in low pressure environments, but she has also worked with the London Fire Brigade and has an interest in the chemistry of materials used for buildings. The problem is that safety standards are just as complex as fire itself.

‘I have a lot of sympathy for people who have to put standards together,’ she explains. ‘For sofa materials, we can say it has to resist a flame of a certain wattage for a certain period of time. We do the same for building materials. The problem is that there are lots of different characteristics you could choose. It’s one of those things that, while you could say something doesn’t burn rapidly, it could still give off smoke. And even just burning itself is a problem – are you talking about resisting ignition, that it shouldn’t ignite until a certain point? Different materials may have a really high auto-ignition temperature, but ignite really quickly when exposed to a naked flame.’

This is just the first hurdle, Benson says. Materials might form carbon char layer, caused by incomplete combustion, so that even if they do catch fire they go out quickly. This could be safer than a material that takes longer to ignite, but then won’t stop burning. ‘Then you’ve got flame speed across the surface of the material. And heat release rate, when a material releases a lot of energy quickly, which could be more dangerous in terms of onward combustion.’

The UK Fire Protection Association’s (FPA) critique of the tests carried out on Grenfell Tower’s cladding raised several concerns. The insulation was made from polyisocyanurate, and was tested by creating a three storey tower. ‘At the bottom, they created a wooden crib, a lattice of wood,’ Benson says. ‘It was used so there was a known heat release rate, so we can extrapolate back and it’s a nice, clean comparable test. But the point the FPA made was that it wasn’t representative of the environment because so much of it is plastic, which has a much higher heat release rate [than wood] … another excellent point is that the test was done inside a very large warehouse, where there’s no air flow. And I don’t know if you’ve ever put your hand outside a tower block window, but the wind 20 or 30 storeys up is very different.’

The hope is that these standards can be updated to better reflect the real world – and prevent another disaster such as Grenfell. It’s a mission that will require chemists and materials scientists working in partnership with fire services and architects. And even then, we’ll have barely begun to understand the mysteries of fire – and tackle the immensely complex scientific challenges it poses.


Kit Chapman is a science writer based in Southampton, UK

Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Chinese Blood Test for Cancer


Researchers say blood test can detect cancer years before symptoms
By Nicola Davis

 The Guardian, July 21, 2020 -- “A blood test can pick up cancers up to four years before symptoms appear, researchers say, in the latest study to raise hopes of early detection.

“A team led by researchers in China say the non-invasive blood test – called PanSeer – detects cancer in 95% of individuals who have no symptoms but later receive a diagnosis.

“We demonstrated that five types of cancer can be detected through a DNA methylation-based blood test up to four years before conventional diagnosis,” the team wrote in the journal Nature Communications.
“They said the test was unlikely to be predicting cancer but rather picking up on cancerous growths that had not yet caused symptoms or been spotted by other methods.

“Such tests, known as liquid biopsies, have become the focus of much research as they offer a non-invasive way to screen patients.”