In March and April 2021, Russia started to mass thousands of military personnel and equipment near its border with Ukraine, representing the highest force mobilization since the country's annexation of Crimea in 2014. This precipitated an international crisis and generated concerns over a potential invasion. Satellite imagery showed movements of armor, missiles, and other heavy weaponry. The troops were partially removed by June. The crisis was renewed in October and November 2021, when over 100,000 Russian troops were again massed near the border by December.
The ongoing crisis stems from the
protracted Russo-Ukrainian War that began in early 2014. In December 2021, Russia advanced two draft
treaties that contained requests of what it referred to as "security
guarantees," including a legally binding promise that Ukraine would not
join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as well as a reduction in
NATO troops and military hardware stationed in Eastern Europe, and threatened
unspecified military response if those demands were not met in full. NATO has
rejected these requests, and the United States warned Russia of "swift and
severe" economic sanctions should it further invade Ukraine.
The crisis has been described by some
commentators as one of the most intense since the Cold War.
Background
Following the dissolution of the Soviet
Union in 1991, both Ukraine and Russia continued to retain close ties. In 1994, Ukraine agreed to abandon its nuclear
arsenal and signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances on the
condition that Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States would issue an
assurance against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or
political independence of Ukraine. Five years later, Russia was one of the
signatories of the Charter for European Security, where it "reaffirmed the
inherent right of each and every participating State to be free to choose or
change its security arrangements, including treaties of alliance, as they
evolve".
Despite being a recognized independent
country since 1991, as a former USSR constituent republic, Ukraine had been
perceived by the leadership of Russia as being part of its sphere of influence.
In 2008, Russian President Vladimir
Putin spoke out against Ukraine's membership in NATO. Romanian analyst Iulian Chifu and his
co-authors in 2009 opined that in regard to Ukraine, Russia has pursued an
updated version of the Brezhnev Doctrine, which dictates that the sovereignty
of Ukraine cannot be larger than that of the Warsaw Pact's member states prior
to the collapse of the Soviet sphere of influence during the late-1980s and
early-1990s.
Following weeks of protests as part of
the Euromaidan movement (2013–2014), pro-Russian Ukrainian president Viktor
Yanukovych and the leaders of the Ukrainian parliamentary opposition on 21
February 2014 signed a settlement agreement that called for an early election.
The following day, Yanukovych fled from Kyiv ahead of an impeachment vote that
stripped him of his powers as president.
Leaders of the Russian-speaking eastern regions of Ukraine declared
continuing loyalty to Yanukovych, causing the 2014 pro-Russian unrest in
Ukraine. The unrest was followed by War
in Donbas in April 2014 with the creation of the self-proclaimed Donetsk
People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic, both heavily supported by
Russia, as well as the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia.
On 14 September 2020, Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy,
"which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with
NATO with the aim of membership in NATO."
On 24 March 2021, President Zelensky signed the Decree 117/2021
approving the "strategy of de-occupation and reintegration of the
temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the
city of Sevastopol."
In July 2021, Russia's president, Vladimir
Putin, published an essay titled On the Historical Unity of Russians and
Ukrainians, in which he re-affirmed his view that Russians and Ukrainians
were "one people". American
Historian Timothy Snyder has described Putin's ideas as imperialism. British journalist Edward Lucas described it
as revisionist. Other observers have
noted that the Russian leadership has a distorted view of modern Ukraine and
its history.
Russia has said that a possible Ukrainian
accession to NATO and the NATO enlargement in general threaten its national
security. In turn, Ukraine and other
European countries neighboring Russia have accused Putin of attempting to
restore the Soviet Empire and of pursuing aggressive militaristic policies.
Ukrainian Defenses
In preparation of a possible renewed
Russian invasion, the Ukrainian Ground Forces announced a meeting in April 2021
regarding territorial defenses to strengthen and protect the nation's borders
and critical facilities, and to combat sabotage and reconnaissance groups at
southern Ukraine. During the same month,
Zelensky visited Ukrainian defensive positions at Donbas.
The United States estimated in December
2021 that Russia could assemble over 175,000 troops to invade Ukraine. Oleksii Reznikov, Ukrainian Minister of
Defense, stated, "...we have 250,000 official members of our army. Plus, I
said 400,000 veterans and 200,000 reservists. 175,000 (is) not enough to go to
Ukraine." Reznikov claimed that
Russia could launch a large-scale attack on Ukraine in late-January 2022.
Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces (the
reserve component of the Ground Forces established after the 2014 war)
recruited additional citizens and trained them in urban guerrilla tactics and
firearms use. Such insurgency tactics,
as reported by The New York Times, could support a resistance
movement if the Russian military is able to overwhelm the Ukrainian military. Andrii Zahorodniuk, former Ukrainian Minister
of Defense, wrote in January 2022 that in the case of a Russian invasion, the
Russian forces would likely destroy "key elements of the country's
military infrastructure" and will be able to "advance deep into
Ukrainian territory", but would face difficulty in securing it. Zahorodniuk further stated, "Russian
occupation forces will face highly motivated opponents fighting in familiar
surroundings. By combining serving military units with combat veterans,
reservists, territorial defense units, and large numbers of volunteers, Ukraine
can create tens of thousands of small and highly mobile groups capable of
attacking Russian forces. This will make it virtually impossible for the
Kremlin to establish any kind of administration over occupied areas or secure
its lines of supply.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%932022_Russo-Ukrainian_crisis
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