Saturday, March 1, 2014

Russia and the Crimea

The 2014 Crimean Crisis unfolded in the aftermath of the 2014 Ukrainian revolution, in which the government of President Victor Yanukovych was ousted. Protests were staged by groups of mainly ethnic Russians who opposed the events in Kiev and wanted close ties or integration with Russia, in addition to expanded autonomy or possible independence for Crimea. Other groups, including Crimean Tatars, protested in support of the revolution.

On 27 February, armed men wearing masks seized a number of important buildings in Crimea, including the parliament building and two airports. Kiev accused Russia of invading in Ukraine's internal affairs, while the Russian side officially denied such claims. On March 1, the Russian parliament granted President Vladimir Putin the authority to use military force in Ukraine. The international community widely condemned this move.

Background
Crimea had been part of Russia since the 18th century, although ethnic Russians did not become the largest population group in Crimea until the 20th century. Crimea had autonomy within the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic from 1921 until 1945 as the Crimean Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic, when Stalin deported the Crimean Tatars majority and abolished Crimean autonomy. In 1954, the Soviet leadership under Khruschev transferred the Crimean Oblast from the Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSR. The Crimean Tatars were not permitted to return home, and became an international cause celebre. Crimea's pre-1945 autonomy was re-established in the final year of the Soviet Union's existence, 1991. Despite separatist tensions throughout the 1990s, Crimea has remained an Autonomous Republic within Ukraine.

According to 2001 census Ethnic Russians make up about 58% of the two million residents of Crimea. Ukranians make up 24%, while Crimean Tatars are 12%; Tatars have been returning since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, causing persistent tensions with Russians over land rights. In Sevastopol, ethnic Russians make up 70% of the city's population of 340,000.

According to Ukrainian-American academic Taras Kuzio, during the Viktor Yushchenko presidency (2005–10), Russia’s relations with Ukraine deteriorated, prompting the Russian security service (FSB) and Russian military intelligence (GRU) to expand their covert support for Russian nationalists in Southern Ukraine and Russian separatists in Crimea. Following the Orange Revolution and the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, American diplomatic cables later leaked to the public noted that Russian military action against Ukraine was "no longer unthinkable."

In the 2010 local parliamentary elections, the Party of Regions received 357,030 votes, with the second placed party, the Communist Party of Ukraine, receiving 54,172. Both parties were targeted by protesters during the 2014 Ukrainian revolution.

Revolution in Kiev
Towards the end of 2013, anti-government Euromaidan protests began over the issue of Accession of Ukraine to the European Union which President Viktor Yanukovich rejected. This was viewed by the media as a step closer towards Russia-Ukraine relations. As the protests escalated into 2014, it eventually led to deaths on 20 February as a result of violence. Parliament then voted to impeach Yanukovich on 21 February during the so-called 2014 Ukrainian revolution. Residents of the Eastern and Southern parts of the country, protested against the new regime in Kiev. The Parliament of Crimera called for an extraordinary session on 21 February. The leader of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People said he suspected that the session may ask for Russian military intervention. "Tomorrow may be a decision that will bring chaos and disaster to Crimea."

On 21 February 2014 the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said that "it will use severe measures to prevent any action taken against diminishing the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine." The same day the biggest party in the Parliament of Crimea, Party of Regions, who held 80 of the 100 seats, did not discuss issues relating to the separation of Crimea from Ukraine and implied to be supportive of the deal struck between President Yanukovych and the opposition to end the crises signed in Kiev the same day.

On 27 February Vasvi Abduraimov, leader of the Crimean Tatar organization Milliy Firqa, said that his organization does not support association with the European Union, and claimed that a majority of Crimean Tatars support union with Russia. Also, he asked for protection from "bandits".

Reaction of the United States
Secretary of State John Kerry said in a press conference with German Foreign Minister Frank Walter Steinmeier on 27 February, "We all have to understand that nowhere is there a greater connection to or link to Russia in several different ways than there is in Crimea, but that as the days unfold, this should not become a tension or a struggle between the United States, Russia, East, West, et cetera. This is about the people of Ukraine being able to make their decisions." Kerry further urged Russia to respect Ukraine's borders and territorial integrity. The US offered Russia cooperation to resolve situation in Ukraine.
On 28 February, President Barack Obama’s statement was released warning Russia not to intervene in Crimea. The statement said that President Obama is "deeply concerned by reports of military movements taken by the Russian Federation inside of Ukraine." It added that "any violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity would be deeply destabilizing, which is not in the interest of Ukraine, Russia, or Europe" and that it would be "a clear violation of Russia's commitment to respect the independence and sovereignty and borders of Ukraine, and of international laws."

Commentary

Several scholars, including Alexander J. Motyl, Paul A. Goble, Timothy D. Snyder and Andreas Umland, have discussed the possibility of Russian military intervention in Crimea specifically, due to its unique geopolitical nature and demographics.

Volodymyr Panchenko, of the Kiev-based think-tank International Center for Policy Studies, says that the aim of Russia is for Crimea to be "more or less controlled by Russian troops," but that if or when a referendum is held "more than 80 percent" of votes would be for secession from Ukraine. The way events are unfolding in Crimea "is not a good precedent for the other provinces."
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_crisis

No comments:

Post a Comment