Engineers develop a model to analyze pathways to full independence from Russian natural gas
From: Birmingham University
October 5, 2022 -- BINGHAMTON,
N.Y. – Using a new power sector model, a team of researchers, including faculty
at Binghamton University, State University of New York, have proposed a method
for Europe to eliminate natural gas imports from Russia.
The Russian invasion of
Ukraine has highlighted the depth of Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas
imports. The REPowerEU plan, released by the European Commission, maps a
European Union-wide pathway to reduce Russian natural imports by two-thirds by
the end of 2022, with the complete elimination of Russian gas by 2027. Overall,
there are only four main policy levers in the short term: increase pipeline gas
and liquified natural gas imports from non-Russian sources, reduce gas demand
in heating and industry, reduce gas-fired electricity generation and adopt
flexible gas storage targets.
A research team
including Binghamton University engineer Neha Patankar has created a power
sector model for Europe and a gas network model to analyze multiple feasible
pathways to secure full independence from Russian natural gas. Patankar is an
operations research analyst with a research focus on energy system and power
system modeling. Her research aims to provide insights for constructing a
robust decision under parametric and structural uncertainty. Her research also
includes the evaluation of low-carbon technologies and the effects of policy
scenarios on energy systems.
The team modeled
European natural gas and electricity systems to assess the feasibility and
potential impact of a near-complete embargo on imports of Russian natural gas
to Europe beginning in October.
It found that Europe
can eliminate reliance on Russian natural gas by augmenting REPowerEU plans
with a temporary boost in coal and recalibrated gas storage.
“All successful gas independence
pathways increase reliance on coal-fired electricity generation but reduce
overall greenhouse gas emissions due to offsets from lower gas demand,” said
Patankar, assistant professor in Binghamton University’s Department of Systems
Science and Industrial Engineering.
To be successful these
actions will have to be sustained for the next two winters, Patankar said.
“Increasing renewables,
electrification of heating and liquified natural gas imports will steadily
replace the current policy levers and maintain Europe’s long-term energy
transition,” she said.
Contributing to this
research were Michael Lau, a second-year PhD student in the Department of
Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Princeton University; Wilson Ricks, a
fourth-year PhD student in the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace
Engineering, Princeton University; Jesse Jenkins, an assistant professor of
mechanical and aerospace engineering and the Andlinger Center for Energy and
the Environment.
The commentary article,
“Europe’s way out: Tools to rapidly eliminate imports of Russian natural gas,”
was published in Joule.
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