Double trouble when two disasters strike electrical transmission infrastructure
From: Ohio
State University
October 21, 2022 -- One natural disaster can knock
out electric service to millions. A new study suggests that back-to-back
disasters could cause catastrophic damage, but the research also identifies new
ways to monitor and maintain power grids.
Researchers at The Ohio State University have
developed a machine learning model for predicting how susceptible overhead
transmission lines are to damage when natural hazards like hurricanes or
earthquakes happen in quick succession.
An essential facet of modern infrastructure, steel
transmission towers help send electricity across long distances by keeping
overhead power lines far off the ground. After severe damage, failures in these
systems can disrupt networks across affected communities, taking anywhere from
a few weeks to months to fix.
The study, published in the journal Earthquake
Engineering and Structural Dynamics, uses simulations to analyze what
effect prior damage has on the performance of these towers once a second hazard
strikes. Their findings suggest that previous damage has a considerable impact
on the fragility and reliability of these networks if it can't be repaired
before the second hazard hits, said Abdollah Shafieezadeh, co-author of the
study and an associate professor of civil, environmental and geodetic
engineering.
"Our work aims to answer if it's possible to
design and manage systems in a way that not only minimizes their initial damage
but enables them to recover faster," said Shafieezadeh.
The machine learning model not only found that a
combination of an earthquake and hurricane could be particularly devastating to
the electrical grid, but that the order of the disasters may make a difference.
The researchers found that the probability of a tower collapse is much higher
in the event of an earthquake followed by a hurricane than the probability of
failure when the hurricane comes first and is followed by an earthquake.
That means while communities would certainly suffer
some setbacks in the event that a hurricane precedes an earthquake, a situation
wherein an earthquake precedes a hurricane could devastate a region's power
grid. Such conclusions are why Shafieezadeh's research has large implications
for disaster recovery efforts.
"When large-scale power grid systems are spread
over large geographic areas, it's not possible to carefully inspect every inch
of them very carefully," said Shafieezadeh. "Predictive models can
help engineers or organizations see which towers have the greatest probability
of failure and quickly move to improve those issues in the field."
After training the model for numerous scenarios, the
team created "fragility models" that tested how the structures would
hold up under different characteristics and intensities of natural threats.
With the help of these simulations, researchers concluded that tower failures
due to a single hazardous event were vastly different from the pattern of
failures caused by multi-hazard events. The study noted that many of these
failings occurred in the leg elements of the structure, a segment of the tower
that helps bolt the structure to the ground and prevents collapse.
Overall, Shafieezadeh said his research shows a need
to focus on re-evaluating the entire design philosophy of these networks. Yet
to accomplish such a task, much more support from utilities and government
agencies is needed.
"Our work would be greatly beneficial in
creating new infrastructure regulations in the field," Shafieezadeh said.
"This along with our other research shows that we can substantially
improve the entire system's performance with the same amount of resources that
we spend today, just by optimizing their allocation."
This work was supported by the Korea Institute of
Energy Technology Evaluation and Planning (KETEP) and the Ministry of Trade,
Industry & Energy of the Republic of Korea (MOTIE).
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/10/221021132724.htm
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