Monday, April 30, 2012

US Government Loss: Over $6 Trillion in 2011

The January 2012 actuarial report from the Social Security and Medicare board (printed page 238 or pdf file page 244/285, Table V.F2:

The Medicare and SS shortfall over the next 75 years is $38.6 trillion for budget purposes or $14.0 trillion after estimated transfers and revenues

-- and --

The January 2011 actuarial report (printed page 227 or pdf file page 233/273), Table V.D2 shows:
Medicare and SS shortfall over the next 75 years of $33.8 trillion for budget purposes or 9.5 trillion after estimated transfers and revenues.

Combining this information gives us an annual actuarial calculation for increase in the net unfunded debt of Social Security and Medicare. For budgetary purposes, the Medicare/OASDI loss for the year ending 12/31/11 was $38.6 trillion less $33.8 trillion or $4.8 trillion dollars (a loss not included in the cash basis federal government cash loss of $1.299 trillion for 2011). So, under generally accepted accounting principles, the loss for calendar year 2011 was AT LEAST $6 trillion (federal pensions, military pensions, and other guarantees such as ERISA guarantees of private pensions, guarantees to financial institutions and Federal Reserve commitments are not included here).

If we include transfers from trust funds and interest credits in addition top the budgetary calculation above, the loss for calendar year 2011 is $4.5 trillion instead of $4.8 trillion. It still brings the annual loss to nearly $6 trillion for 2011 in an economy with a $3.6 trillion cash budget and a cash debt of $16 trillion for an economy with GDP of about 14.8 trillion.

Plainly, we’re broke. We have to freeze entitlements and cut where we can. If we wait, we’ll have to cut benefits for the current recipients. We used to have some slack when our federal cash debt total was smaller than the nation’s annual gross domestic product. But that cushion vanished on August 2, 2011, when financial borrowing was extended – Standard and Poors properly downgraded the nation’s credit rating the same day.

These links are annual actuarial reports signed by the registered actuary and by the members of the Medicare/SS board. They are public record. The Senate and House spend $5 billion a year, every year, on themselves. They all have access to this information and several dozen staff members apiece -- and – they do nothing about annual losses that lead to federal bankruptcy and hyperinflation. Congress was warned about this coming fiasco by several books published in the last decade and, specifically, by the final testimony of Alan Greenspan to Congress when he left the Federal Reserve chairmanship in 2006.

Don’t take the word of a Senator or Congressional representative about anything fiscal nor monetary.

Link for Jan 2011 report:

Link for Jan 2012 report:

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