Saturday, January 26, 2019

Venezuala's Presidential Crisis

Venezuela has been experiencing a presidential crisis since 10 January 2019. The incumbent President Nicolás Maduro was declared president in the 2018 election; however, the process and results of that election were widely disputed. The dispute came to a head in early 2019 when the National Assembly of Venezuela stated that results of the election were invalid and declared Juan Guaidó as the acting president, citing several clauses of the 1999 Venezuelan Constitution. National protests were then organized by the opposition against Maduro's election and his ruling coalition.

                                                               Maduro and Guaido

Juan Guaidó had begun motions as a transitional government, calling for an open cabildo "town hall"-style rally on 11 January. Demonstrations and defections had begun to take place as well. Internally, Maduro has received the support of the pro-government Constituent Assembly, while Guaidó is backed by the pro-opposition National Assembly.

Guaidó was briefly detained by Venezuelan security forces on 13 January, with each side claiming the other party was responsible; Maduro's supporters claimed the arrest was staged while Guaidó called the arrest an attempt to stop the National Assembly from assuming power. Venezuela began censoring some social media outlets beginning on 21 January.

A few days after the National Assembly's declaration, various Venezuelan groups, foreign nations, and international organizations made statements supporting either side of the conflict. The Lima Group declared Maduro illegitimate on 13 January. Afterward, the Organization of American States (OAS) and the European Union expressed support for the National Assembly alongside other Western countries, while other nations have expressed support for Maduro.

Large mass protests and violence erupted on 23 January and drew further responses from a number of foreign governments and leaders.

Background

Since 2010, Venezuela has been suffering a socioeconomic crisis under Nicolás Maduro (and briefly under his predecessor Hugo Chávez), as rampant crime, hyperinflation and shortages diminished the quality of life. As a result of discontent with the government, for the first time since 1999, the opposition was elected to hold the majority in the National Assembly following the 2015 parliamentary election. Following the 2015 National Assembly election, the lame duck National Assembly, consisting of Bolivarian officials, filled the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, the highest court in Venezuela, with Maduro allies. The tribunal quickly stripped three opposition lawmakers of their National Assembly seats in early 2016, citing alleged "irregularities" in their elections, thereby preventing an opposition supermajority which would have been able to challenge President Maduro.

The tribunal then approved several actions by Maduro and granted him more powers in 2017. As protests mounted against Maduro, he called for a constituent assembly that would draft a new constitution that would replace the 1999 Venezuela Constitution of his predecessor, Hugo Chávez. Many countries considered the election a bid by Maduro to stay in power indefinitely, and over 40 countries stated that they would not recognize the National Constituent Assembly. The Democratic Unity Roundtable—the opposition to the incumbent ruling party—also boycotted the election claiming that the Constituent Assembly was "a trick to keep [the incumbent ruling party] in power." Since the opposition did not participate in the election, the incumbent Great Patriotic Pole, dominated by the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, won almost all seats in the assembly by default. On 8 August 2017, the Constituent Assembly declared itself to be the government branch with supreme power in Venezuela, banning the opposition-led National Assembly from performing actions that would interfere with the assembly while continuing to pass measures in "support and solidarity" with President Maduro, effectively stripping the National Assembly of all its powers

January 23 Events

Prior to 23 January, there had been great anticipation of the day, with smaller protests building in the nation in the preceding days. On the morning of 23 January, Guaidó tweeted that "The world's eyes are on our homeland today". On that day, millions of Venezuelans protested across the country in support of Guaidó, described as "a river of humanity", with a few hundred attending a protest in support of Maduro outside Miraflores.

 
The opposition protest march began its route at Avenida Francisco de Miranda, a major street in Caracas, which was planned for a 10:00 AM start but was delayed for 30 minutes due to rain. At one end was a stage, this part of the street blocked off, where Guaidó spoke during the protest and declared himself president, swearing himself in. It was reported that the National Guard used tear gas on gathering crowds before the protest began to disperse them. Another area of the capital was blocked off at Plaza Venezuela, a large main square, with armored vehicles and riot police on hand before protestors arrived.

It was reported on social media that by mid-day, two people were killed in protests in San Cristóbal, Táchira, and four in Barinas. Photographic reports published showed that the some protests grew violent, resulting in injuries to protesters and security alike. By the end of the day, at least 13 people were killed. Michelle Bachelet of the United Nations expressed concern that so many people had been killed, and requested a UN investigation into the security forces' use of violence.

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